Why this pick: Hull City vs Brentford
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hull City 8, Brentford 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Hull City vs Brentford: model vs market
| Source | Hull City | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Market | 20% | 24% | 56% |
| Published | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| Edge | +3% | +1% | -4% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Hull City vs Brentford odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Brentford, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 4.50 | 4.82 | +0.32 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
| Brentford | 1.62 | 1.71 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hull City and Brentford expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.04
- Attack rating (Hull City / Brentford)
- 0.79 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Hull City / Brentford)
- 1.04 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hull City vs Brentford score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hull City goals. Columns: Brentford goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hull City vs Brentford goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hull City vs Brentford
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hull City | 23% | 4.34 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Brentford | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hull City or draw) | 48% | 2.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Brentford) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brentford win by 2+ | 22% | 4.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Hull City and Brentford recent form
Hull City
0W 3D 3L
Brentford
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hull City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Brentford away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hull City at home only, Brentford away only.
Injuries & availability
Hull City absences
-
C. Hughes
groin injury
-
D. Gyabi
groin injury
-
E. Matazo
knee injury
-
I. Ansah
back injury
-
J. Butland
arm injury
-
M. Targett
ankle injury
-
N. Mendy
groin injury
Brentford absences
-
A. Milambo
knock
-
J. Dasilva
muscle injury
-
K. Furo
surgery
-
V. Janelt
suspended
- Y. Yarmolyuk suspended
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Hull City lineup · 5-4-1
- 19 K. Tzolakis
- 3 R. Giles
- 22 L. Herrington
- 15 J. Egan
- 6 S. Ajayi
- 2 L. Coyle
- 21 E. Stroud
- 27 R. Slater
- 42 T. Iroegbunam
- 10 M. Belloumi
- 9 O. McBurnie
Bench: H. Morita, S. Thomas, J. Gelhardt, D. Phillips, P. McNair, B. Norton-Cuffy, M. Crooks, R. Vaz, M. Cho
Brentford lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 C. Kelleher
- 2 A. Hickey
- 20 K. Ajer
- 4 S. van den Berg
- 33 M. Kayode
- 18 M. Sangaré
- 8 M. Jensen
- 23 K. Lewis-Potter
- 7 K. Schade
- 11 D. Ouattara
- 9 Thiago
Bench: H. Valdimarsson, C. Wilson, J. Anthony, N. Collins, M. Damsgaard, E. Diouf, Gustavo Gomes, Jannik Schuster, B. Fredrick
Hull City vs Brentford head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Hull City 4 · draws 2 · Brentford 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-01 | Hull City | 1-5 | Brentford | Championship |
| 2019-08-17 | Brentford | 1-1 | Hull City | Championship |
| 2019-02-23 | Brentford | 5-1 | Hull City | Championship |
| 2018-12-15 | Hull City | 2-0 | Brentford | Championship |
| 2018-05-06 | Brentford | 1-1 | Hull City | Championship |
| 2017-12-09 | Hull City | 3-2 | Brentford | Championship |
| 2016-04-26 | Hull City | 2-0 | Brentford | Championship |
| 2015-11-03 | Brentford | 0-2 | Hull City | Championship |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Ipswich v Nottingham Forest — match page 2026-10-23
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Arsenal v Everton — match page 2026-10-24
- Coventry vs Fulham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Chelsea vs Tottenham 2026-10-24
- Liverpool vs Brighton 2026-10-25
- Manchester United v Bournemouth — match page 2026-10-25
- Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Hull City, previous: Fulham v Hull City analysis
- Hull City, next: Hull City – Ipswich, 2026-10-31
- Brentford, previous: Brentford vs Liverpool prediction
- Brentford, next: Brentford vs Nottingham Forest prediction