Updated

Premier League · Matchday 8

Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest

· Portman Road Stadium, Ipswich· Referee Thomas Bramall

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Nottingham Forest to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
IpswichDrawNottingham Forest

Why this pick: Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Ipswich 10, Nottingham Forest 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

IpswichNottingham Forest
1.34 xG per 90 1.84
1.25 npxG per 90 1.76
12.6 PPDA 14.2
5.0 Deep completions per 90 7.4
1.10 xPTS per 90 1.60

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceIpswichDrawNottingham Forest
Model37%23%40%
Market31%28%41%
Published32%27%41%
Edge+1%-1%0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Nottingham Forest, 26 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 2.44Now 2.33 -0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ipswich2.743.10+0.36
Draw3.283.48+0.20
Nottingham Forest2.442.33-0.11

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ipswich and Nottingham Forest expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.83Ipswich
2.01Nottingham Forest
Total expected goals
3.84
Attack rating (Ipswich / Nottingham Forest)
1.10 / 1.15
Defence rating (Ipswich / Nottingham Forest)
1.42 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.1% 2.8% 4.0% 2.7% 2.1% 1 2.6% 8.7% 7.6% 5.1% 4.1% 2 3.6% 7.3% 7.3% 4.9% 3.9% 3 2.3% 4.7% 4.7% 3.1% 2.5% 4+ 1.7% 3.5% 3.5% 2.3% 1.9%

Rows: Ipswich goals. Columns: Nottingham Forest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ipswich32%3.08
Draw27%3.77
Nottingham Forest41%2.44
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.03
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.33
No25%4.01
Double chance1X (Ipswich or draw)59%1.70
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Nottingham Forest)68%1.48
Handicap -1Nottingham Forest win by 2+23%4.37
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ipswich and Nottingham Forest recent form

Ipswich 2W 0D 4L
Nottingham Forest 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ipswich at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Nottingham Forest away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ipswich at home only, Nottingham Forest away only.

Injuries & availability

Ipswich absences

  • J. Taylor knee injury
  • S. Lukic groin injury

Nottingham Forest absences

  • Igor Jesus calf injury
  • N. Savona knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Ipswich lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 28 C. Walton
  2. 3 L. Davis
  3. 26 D. O'Shea
  4. 6 I. Diop
  5. 42 A. Ouattara
  6. 12 Florentino
  7. 25 E. Palacios
  8. 11 J. Philogene
  9. 10 J. Enciso
  10. 7 A. Fatawu
  11. 19 Emersonn

Bench: D. Furlong, A. Matusiwa, Z. Flemming, J. Greaves, C. Akpom, M. Núñez, K. Scherpen, D. Maeda, J. Clarke

Nottingham Forest lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 26 M. Sels
  2. 5 Murillo
  3. 31 N. Milenković
  4. 23 Jair
  5. 3 N. Williams
  6. 21 X. Schlager
  7. 24 J. McAtee
  8. 27 D. Muñoz
  9. 10 M. Gibbs-White
  10. 14 D. Ndoye
  11. 19 L. Delap

Bench: O. Diomande, I. Sangaré, C. Hudson-Odoi, C. Wood, John, A. Kalimuendo, R. Yates, L. Netz, O. Aina

Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Ipswich 2 · draws 2 · Nottingham Forest 6.

IpswichDrawsNottingham Forest
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-03-15Ipswich2-4Nottingham ForestPremier League
2025-03-03Nottingham Forest1-1IpswichEngland FA Cup
2024-11-30Nottingham Forest1-0IpswichPremier League
2019-03-16Ipswich1-1Nottingham ForestChampionship
2018-12-01Nottingham Forest2-0IpswichChampionship
2018-04-14Nottingham Forest2-1IpswichChampionship
2017-12-02Ipswich4-2Nottingham ForestChampionship
2017-05-07Nottingham Forest3-0IpswichChampionship
2016-11-19Ipswich0-2Nottingham ForestChampionship
2016-03-05Ipswich1-0Nottingham ForestChampionship

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match