Why this pick: Burnley vs Manchester City
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Burnley 10, Manchester City 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
BurnleyManchester City
1.03
xG per 90
2.16
1.03
npxG per 90
2.08
14.9
PPDA
10.6
3.8
Deep completions per 90
10.3
0.74
xPTS per 90
2.10
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Burnley and Manchester City recent form
Burnley
0W 1D 5L
Manchester City
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Burnley at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-9
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.56
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
Manchester City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
League matches this season before kick-off: Burnley at home only, Manchester City away only.
Burnley vs Manchester City head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Burnley 0 · draws 0 · Manchester City 3.
0%
0%
100%
BurnleyDrawsManchester City
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Manchester City | 5-1 | Burnley | Premier League |
| 2024-01-31 | Manchester City | 3-1 | Burnley | Premier League |
| 2023-08-11 | Burnley | 0-3 | Manchester City | Premier League |
Before and after this match
- Burnley, previous: Nottingham Forest vs Burnley: odds and pick
- Burnley, next: Leeds vs Burnley prediction
- Manchester City, previous: Manchester City vs Arsenal prediction
- Manchester City, next: Everton – Manchester City, 2026-05-04