Why this pick: Chelsea vs Burnley
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Chelsea 10, Burnley 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
ChelseaBurnley
2.42
xG per 90
0.84
1.96
npxG per 90
0.84
9.7
PPDA
12.6
6.5
Deep completions per 90
4.3
1.76
xPTS per 90
0.60
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Chelsea and Burnley recent form
Chelsea
4W 1D 1L
Burnley
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chelsea at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-3
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
Burnley away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-9
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.23
- Goals against / match
- 2.46
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
League matches this season before kick-off: Chelsea at home only, Burnley away only.
Chelsea vs Burnley head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Chelsea 2 · draws 1 · Burnley 0.
67%
33%
0%
ChelseaDrawsBurnley
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Burnley | 0-2 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2024-03-30 | Chelsea | 2-2 | Burnley | Premier League |
| 2023-10-07 | Burnley | 1-4 | Chelsea | Premier League |
Before and after this match
- Chelsea, previous: Chelsea vs Leeds: odds and pick
- Chelsea, next: Arsenal – Chelsea, 2026-03-01
- Burnley, previous: Crystal Palace vs Burnley prediction
- Burnley, next: Burnley v Brentford analysis