Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 Prediction 01.11.2026

Why this pick: Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atalanta 10, Parma Calcio 1913 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

AtalantaParma Calcio 1913

1.62 xG per 90 0.93

1.53 npxG per 90 0.93

19.0 PPDA 15.7

6.4 Deep completions per 90 5.7

0.98 xPTS per 90 0.81

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Atalanta	Draw	Parma Calcio 1913
Model	59%	23%	18%
Market	66%	21%	14%
Published	64%	21%	15%
Edge	-2%	+1%	+1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.21.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded 2026-10-28 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atalanta, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 1.42Now 1.44 +0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Atalanta	1.42	1.44	+0.02
Draw	4.76	4.53	-0.23
Parma Calcio 1913	7.40	6.97	-0.43

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atalanta and Parma Calcio 1913 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.23Atalanta

1.21Parma Calcio 1913

Total expected goals: 3.44
Attack rating (Atalanta / Parma Calcio 1913): 1.23 / 0.77
Defence rating (Atalanta / Parma Calcio 1913): 1.29 / 1.36

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 2.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 1 5.4% 10.4% 5.2% 2.1% 0.8% 2 8.0% 9.6% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 3 5.9% 7.2% 4.3% 1.7% 0.7% 4+ 5.6% 6.8% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6%

Rows: Atalanta goals. Columns: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 67%

Over 3.5 45%

Both teams to score: 64%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Atalanta	64%	1.57
	Draw	21%	4.65
	Parma Calcio 1913	15%	6.82
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67%	1.50
	Under 2.5	33%	3.01
Both teams to score	Yes	64%	1.55
	No	36%	2.80
Double chance	1X (Atalanta or draw)	85%	1.17
	12 (either side)	79%	1.27
	X2 (draw or Parma Calcio 1913)	36%	2.77
Handicap -1	Atalanta win by 2+	38%	2.61
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Atalanta and Parma Calcio 1913 recent form

Atalanta 2W 1D 3L

Parma Calcio 1913 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atalanta at home

Record (W-D-L): 3-1-1
Win rate: 60%
Goals for / match: 2.20
Goals against / match: 1.60
Clean sheets: 1 of 5

They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

Parma Calcio 1913 away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-4
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.50
Goals against / match: 2.25
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atalanta at home only, Parma Calcio 1913 away only.

Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913 head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Atalanta 2 · draws 1 · Parma Calcio 1913 1.

50% 25% 25%

AtalantaDrawsParma Calcio 1913

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-01-25	Atalanta	4-0	Parma Calcio 1913	Serie A
2025-08-30	Parma Calcio 1913	1-1	Atalanta	Serie A
2025-05-25	Atalanta	2-3	Parma Calcio 1913	Serie A
2024-11-23	Parma Calcio 1913	1-3	Atalanta	Serie A

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

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Sassuolo vs Fiorentina 2026-11-01
Juventus vs Napoli 2026-11-01
Frosinone vs Torino 2026-11-01
Lecce v Genoa — match page 2026-11-01
Como vs Venezia — team news & stats 2026-11-01

Before and after this match

Atalanta, previous: Fiorentina vs Atalanta: odds and pick
Parma Calcio 1913, previous: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese: odds and pick

Prediction snapshot Atalanta to win Predicted score 2 – 1 A Bet on Atalanta