Why this pick: Udinese vs Roma
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Udinese 10, Roma 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Udinese vs Roma: model vs market
| Source | Udinese | Draw | Roma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 15% | 73% |
| Market | 17% | 22% | 61% |
| Published | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| Edge | -1% | -2% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.43 vs 1.49.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Roma below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Udinese vs Roma odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Roma, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese | 6.00 | 5.50 | -0.50 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.30 | +0.20 |
| Roma | 1.50 | 1.57 | +0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Udinese and Roma expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.92
- Attack rating (Udinese / Roma)
- 0.94 / 1.83
- Defence rating (Udinese / Roma)
- 1.54 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Udinese vs Roma score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Udinese goals. Columns: Roma goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Udinese vs Roma goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Udinese vs Roma
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Udinese | 16% | 6.25 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.95 | |
| Roma | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87% | 1.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 13% | 7.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.32 |
| No | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Udinese or draw) | 36% | 2.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Roma) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win by 2+ | 57% | 1.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Udinese and Roma recent form
Udinese
0W 0D 6L
Roma
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Udinese at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.4 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Roma away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Udinese at home only, Roma away only.
Udinese vs Roma head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Udinese 1 · draws 0 · Roma 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | Udinese | 1-0 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2025-11-09 | Roma | 2-0 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2025-01-26 | Udinese | 1-2 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2024-09-22 | Roma | 3-0 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2024-04-14 | Udinese | 1-2 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2023-11-26 | Roma | 3-1 | Udinese | Serie A |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Bologna vs Monza — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- AC Milan v Inter — match page 2026-10-31
- Lazio vs Cagliari — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sassuolo vs Fiorentina 2026-11-01
- Juventus vs Napoli 2026-11-01
- Atalanta v Parma Calcio 1913 — match page 2026-11-01
- Frosinone vs Torino 2026-11-01
- Lecce v Genoa — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Udinese, previous: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese: odds and pick
- Roma, previous: Roma v Cagliari analysis