Why this pick: Lazio vs Cagliari
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lazio 10, Cagliari 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lazio vs Cagliari: model vs market
| Source | Lazio | Draw | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Market | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| Published | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lazio vs Cagliari odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lazio, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 1.58 | 1.41 | -0.17 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.60 | +0.60 |
| Cagliari | 6.01 | 7.80 | +1.79 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lazio and Cagliari expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.79
- Attack rating (Lazio / Cagliari)
- 1.29 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Lazio / Cagliari)
- 1.02 / 1.42
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lazio vs Cagliari score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lazio goals. Columns: Cagliari goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lazio vs Cagliari goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lazio vs Cagliari
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lazio | 65% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.79 | |
| Cagliari | 14% | 7.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lazio or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Cagliari) | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lazio win by 2+ | 40% | 2.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lazio and Cagliari recent form
Lazio
5W 1D 0L
Cagliari
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lazio at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Cagliari away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lazio at home only, Cagliari away only.
Lazio vs Cagliari head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Lazio 5 · draws 1 · Cagliari 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Cagliari | 0-0 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2025-11-03 | Lazio | 2-0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2025-02-03 | Cagliari | 1-2 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2024-11-04 | Lazio | 2-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2024-02-10 | Cagliari | 1-3 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2023-12-02 | Lazio | 1-0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Udinese vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- AC Milan v Inter — match page 2026-10-31
- Sassuolo vs Fiorentina 2026-11-01
- Juventus vs Napoli 2026-11-01
- Atalanta v Parma Calcio 1913 — match page 2026-11-01
- Frosinone vs Torino 2026-11-01
- Lecce v Genoa — match page 2026-11-01
- Como vs Venezia — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Lazio, previous: Sassuolo vs Lazio: odds and pick
- Cagliari, previous: Roma v Cagliari analysis