Why this pick: Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sassuolo 10, Fiorentina 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: model vs market
| Source | Sassuolo | Draw | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 23% | 42% |
| Market | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Published | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fiorentina, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 2.60 | 2.80 | +0.20 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.60 | +0.05 |
| Fiorentina | 2.60 | 2.38 | -0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sassuolo and Fiorentina expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.06
- Attack rating (Sassuolo / Fiorentina)
- 1.16 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Sassuolo / Fiorentina)
- 1.49 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sassuolo goals. Columns: Fiorentina goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sassuolo | 34% | 2.94 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Fiorentina | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.30 |
| No | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sassuolo or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Fiorentina) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fiorentina win by 2+ | 25% | 3.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sassuolo and Fiorentina recent form
Sassuolo
1W 1D 4L
Fiorentina
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sassuolo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fiorentina away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sassuolo at home only, Fiorentina away only.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Sassuolo 2 · draws 1 · Fiorentina 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Fiorentina | 0-0 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2025-12-06 | Sassuolo | 3-1 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2024-04-28 | Fiorentina | 5-1 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2024-01-06 | Sassuolo | 1-0 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Udinese vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- AC Milan v Inter — match page 2026-10-31
- Lazio vs Cagliari — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Juventus vs Napoli 2026-11-01
- Atalanta v Parma Calcio 1913 — match page 2026-11-01
- Frosinone vs Torino 2026-11-01
- Lecce v Genoa — match page 2026-11-01
- Como vs Venezia — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Sassuolo, previous: Sassuolo vs Lazio: odds and pick
- Fiorentina, previous: Fiorentina vs Atalanta: odds and pick