Why this pick: Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Fiorentina 10, Atalanta 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: model vs market
| Source | Fiorentina | Draw | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 24% | 35% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Published | 43% | 26% | 32% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Fiorentina vs Atalanta odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fiorentina, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 2.30 | 2.20 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.60 | +0.06 |
| Atalanta | 3.01 | 3.10 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fiorentina and Atalanta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.89
- Attack rating (Fiorentina / Atalanta)
- 1.18 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Fiorentina / Atalanta)
- 1.24 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: Atalanta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fiorentina vs Atalanta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fiorentina | 43% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Atalanta | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.34 |
| No | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fiorentina or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Atalanta) | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fiorentina win by 2+ | 24% | 4.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Fiorentina and Atalanta recent form
Fiorentina
2W 1D 3L
Atalanta
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fiorentina at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
Atalanta away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fiorentina at home only, Atalanta away only.
Injuries & availability
Fiorentina absences
-
A. Atta
abdominal strain
-
F. Parisi
knee injury
- L. Ranieri leg injury
- M. Pongracic muscle injury
-
R. Sottil
back injury
Atalanta absences
- F. Kessie calf injury
- G. Raspadori thigh injury
- G. Scalvini thigh injury
- G. Scamacca thigh injury
-
I. Hien
muscle injury
-
K. Sulemana
knee injury
-
O. Kossounou
thigh injury
- R. Bellanova muscle injury
- S. Kolasinac thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Fiorentina 4 · draws 2 · Atalanta 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Fiorentina | 1-1 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2025-11-30 | Atalanta | 2-0 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2025-03-30 | Fiorentina | 1-0 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2024-09-15 | Atalanta | 3-2 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2024-06-02 | Atalanta | 2-3 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2024-04-24 | Atalanta | 4-1 | Fiorentina | Coppa Italia |
| 2024-04-03 | Fiorentina | 1-0 | Atalanta | Coppa Italia |
| 2023-09-17 | Fiorentina | 3-2 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2023-04-17 | Fiorentina | 1-1 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2022-10-02 | Atalanta | 1-0 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Roma v Cagliari — match page 2026-10-27
- Torino vs Como 2026-10-27
- AC Milan vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Venezia vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Udinese 2026-10-28
- Genoa vs Juventus 2026-10-28
- Monza v Napoli — match page 2026-10-28
- Frosinone v Lecce — match page 2026-10-29
Before and after this match
- Fiorentina, previous: Inter vs Fiorentina prediction
- Fiorentina, next: Sassuolo v Fiorentina analysis
- Atalanta, previous: Atalanta v Frosinone analysis
- Atalanta, next: Atalanta v Parma Calcio 1913 analysis