Updated

Serie A · Matchday 2

Monza vs Udinese

· U-Power Stadium, Monza· Referee Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta, Italy

Full time2 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Udinese to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MonzaDrawUdinese

Why this pick: Monza vs Udinese

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Monza 10, Udinese 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

MonzaUdinese
0.93 xG per 90 1.45
0.93 npxG per 90 1.45
15.8 PPDA 13.3
2.8 Deep completions per 90 5.8
0.72 xPTS per 90 1.38

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Monza vs Udinese: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMonzaDrawUdinese
Model46%27%27%
Market30%30%40%
Published34%30%37%
Edge+4%-1%-3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Monza vs Udinese odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Udinese, 15 snapshots since 2026-08-22.

Opened 1.50Now 2.38 +0.88
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Monza1.503.20+1.70
Draw3.003.15+0.15
Udinese1.502.38+0.88

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Monza and Udinese expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.78Monza
1.34Udinese
Total expected goals
3.12
Attack rating (Monza / Udinese)
1.28 / 1.09
Defence rating (Monza / Udinese)
1.07 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Monza vs Udinese score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 3.8% 4.0% 1.8% 0.8% 1 5.7% 12.6% 7.1% 3.2% 1.4% 2 7.0% 9.4% 6.3% 2.8% 1.3% 3 4.1% 5.6% 3.7% 1.7% 0.8% 4+ 2.8% 3.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.5%

Rows: Monza goals. Columns: Udinese goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Monza vs Udinese goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Monza vs Udinese

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Monza34%2.97
Draw30%3.39
Udinese37%2.72
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.66
Under 2.540%2.52
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.57
No36%2.74
Double chance1X (Monza or draw)63%1.58
12 (either side)70%1.42
X2 (draw or Udinese)66%1.51
Handicap -1Udinese win by 2+13%7.92
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Monza and Udinese recent form

Monza 3W 1D 2L
Udinese 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Monza absences

  • E. Akinsanmiro muscle injury
  • I. Toure knee injury
  • L. Colombo injury
  • M. Pessina knee injury
  • P. Ciurria inactive

Udinese absences

  • A. Zanoli knee injury
  • C. Kabasele suspended
  • G. Chakvetadze foot injury
  • K. Davis muscle injury
  • M. Palma muscle injury
  • N. Zaniolo thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Monza vs Udinese head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Monza 2 · draws 3 · Udinese 2.

MonzaDrawsUdinese
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-05-11Udinese1-2MonzaSerie A
2024-12-09Monza1-2UdineseSerie A
2024-02-03Udinese0-0MonzaSerie A
2023-10-29Monza1-1UdineseSerie A
2023-04-08Udinese2-2MonzaSerie A
2022-10-19Udinese2-3MonzaCoppa Italia
2022-08-26Monza1-2UdineseSerie A

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Before and after this match