Juventus vs Parma Calcio 1913 Prediction 29.08.2026

Why this pick: Juventus vs Parma Calcio 1913

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Juventus 10, Parma Calcio 1913 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

JuventusParma Calcio 1913

1.98 xG per 90 0.76

1.91 npxG per 90 0.76

10.9 PPDA 18.6

12.0 Deep completions per 90 3.3

2.13 xPTS per 90 0.84

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Juventus vs Parma Calcio 1913: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Juventus	Draw	Parma Calcio 1913
Model	70%	21%	9%
Market	78%	15%	7%
Published	76%	16%	8%
Edge	-2%	+2%	+1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.75.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Juventus vs Parma Calcio 1913 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 17 snapshots since 2026-08-21.

Opened 1.42Now 1.22 -0.20

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Juventus	1.42	1.22	-0.20
Draw	6.41	6.50	+0.09
Parma Calcio 1913	6.41	13.65	+7.24

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Juventus and Parma Calcio 1913 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.24Juventus

0.75Parma Calcio 1913

Total expected goals: 2.99
Attack rating (Juventus / Parma Calcio 1913): 1.57 / 0.83
Defence rating (Juventus / Parma Calcio 1913): 0.77 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Juventus vs Parma Calcio 1913 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.7% 2.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1 9.6% 10.1% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 2 12.7% 9.5% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 3 9.4% 7.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 4+ 8.9% 6.7% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1%

Rows: Juventus goals. Columns: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Juventus vs Parma Calcio 1913 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 82%

Over 2.5 57%

Over 3.5 35%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Juventus vs Parma Calcio 1913

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Juventus	76%	1.31
	Draw	16%	6.14
	Parma Calcio 1913	8%	13.25
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.74
	Under 2.5	42%	2.36
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.05
	No	51%	1.95
Double chance	1X (Juventus or draw)	92%	1.08
	12 (either side)	84%	1.19
	X2 (draw or Parma Calcio 1913)	24%	4.20
Handicap -1	Juventus win by 2+	48%	2.10
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Juventus and Parma Calcio 1913 recent form

Juventus 2W 3D 1L

Parma Calcio 1913 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Juventus absences

F. Gatti injury
G. Vicario injury
J. Ekhator muscle injury
K. Yildiz foot injury

Parma Calcio 1913 absences

H. Nicolussi Caviglia groin injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Juventus vs Parma Calcio 1913 head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Juventus 2 · draws 1 · Parma Calcio 1913 1.

50% 25% 25%

JuventusDrawsParma Calcio 1913

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-02-01	Parma Calcio 1913	1-4	Juventus	Serie A
2025-08-24	Juventus	2-0	Parma Calcio 1913	Serie A
2025-04-23	Parma Calcio 1913	1-0	Juventus	Serie A
2024-10-30	Juventus	2-2	Parma Calcio 1913	Serie A

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

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Monza vs Udinese 2026-08-29
Napoli vs Como — team news & stats 2026-08-30
Lazio vs Genoa 2026-08-30
Cagliari v Inter — match page 2026-08-30
Lecce vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-08-31

Before and after this match

Juventus, previous: Frosinone vs Juventus: odds and pick
Juventus, next: Juventus v AC Milan analysis
Parma Calcio 1913, previous: Parma Calcio 1913 v Cagliari analysis
Parma Calcio 1913, next: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Monza prediction