Why this pick: Fiorentina vs Frosinone
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Fiorentina 10, Frosinone 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Fiorentina vs Frosinone: model vs market
| Source | Fiorentina | Draw | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10% | 19% | 71% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Published | 46% | 22% | 31% |
| Edge | -12% | -1% | +13% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Fiorentina vs Frosinone odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fiorentina, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 1.56 | 1.62 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.05 | -0.25 |
| Frosinone | 5.60 | 5.25 | -0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fiorentina and Frosinone expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Fiorentina / Frosinone)
- 1.02 / 1.67
- Defence rating (Fiorentina / Frosinone)
- 1.33 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fiorentina vs Frosinone score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: Frosinone goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fiorentina vs Frosinone goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fiorentina vs Frosinone
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fiorentina | 46% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.48 | |
| Frosinone | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.74 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fiorentina or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Frosinone) | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fiorentina win by 2+ | 4% | 26.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 7% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Fiorentina and Frosinone recent form
Fiorentina
2W 2D 2L
Frosinone
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Fiorentina absences
-
F. Parisi
knee injury
-
M. Kean
transfer negotiations
-
R. Sottil
back injury
Frosinone absences
-
F. Ghedjemis
inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Fiorentina vs Frosinone head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Fiorentina 2 · draws 3 · Frosinone 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-11 | Fiorentina | 5-1 | Frosinone | Serie A |
| 2023-09-28 | Frosinone | 1-1 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2019-04-07 | Fiorentina | 0-1 | Frosinone | Serie A |
| 2018-11-09 | Frosinone | 1-1 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2016-03-20 | Frosinone | 0-0 | Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 2015-11-01 | Fiorentina | 4-1 | Frosinone | Serie A |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- AC Milan vs Venezia 2026-08-28
- Sassuolo v Torino — match page 2026-08-29
- Monza vs Udinese 2026-08-29
- Juventus v Parma Calcio 1913 — match page 2026-08-29
- Napoli vs Como — team news & stats 2026-08-30
- Lazio vs Genoa 2026-08-30
- Cagliari v Inter — match page 2026-08-30
- Lecce vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-08-31
Before and after this match
- Fiorentina, previous: Roma vs Fiorentina prediction
- Fiorentina, next: Fiorentina vs Torino prediction
- Frosinone, previous: Frosinone vs Juventus: odds and pick
- Frosinone, next: Frosinone vs Venezia: odds and pick