Updated

Serie A · Matchday 2

AC Milan vs Venezia

· San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milano· Referee Gianluca Manganiello, Italy

Full time2 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was AC Milan to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AC MilanDrawVenezia

Why this pick: AC Milan vs Venezia

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (AC Milan 10, Venezia 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

AC MilanVenezia
1.30 xG per 90 1.40
1.14 npxG per 90 1.40
17.4 PPDA 10.2
7.2 Deep completions per 90 5.1
1.19 xPTS per 90 1.27

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

AC Milan vs Venezia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAC MilanDrawVenezia
Model21%25%53%
Market69%20%11%
Published57%21%22%
Edge-12%+1%+10%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

AC Milan vs Venezia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AC Milan, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-23.

Opened 1.43Now 1.37 -0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
AC Milan1.431.37-0.06
Draw4.864.80-0.06
Venezia9.008.50-0.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AC Milan and Venezia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.24AC Milan
2.00Venezia
Total expected goals
3.24
Attack rating (AC Milan / Venezia)
1.14 / 1.43
Defence rating (AC Milan / Venezia)
1.22 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AC Milan vs Venezia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.9% 5.9% 7.8% 5.2% 4.1% 1 2.9% 11.7% 9.7% 6.5% 5.1% 2 3.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.2% 3 1.2% 2.5% 2.5% 1.7% 1.3% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5%

Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Venezia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AC Milan vs Venezia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AC Milan vs Venezia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2AC Milan57%1.75
Draw21%4.72
Venezia22%4.63
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.59
Under 2.537%2.69
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.58
No37%2.73
Double chance1X (AC Milan or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Venezia)43%2.34
Handicap -1AC Milan win by 2+9%10.56
Push (exactly one goal)12%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

AC Milan and Venezia recent form

AC Milan 2W 1D 3L
Venezia 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

AC Milan absences

  • F. Tomori inactive
  • R. Leao muscle injury
  • S. Gimenez ankle injury
  • Y. Fofana inactive

Venezia absences

  • A. Adorante hernia
  • M. Sverko hip injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

AC Milan vs Venezia head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: AC Milan 4 · draws 0 · Venezia 0.

AC MilanDrawsVenezia
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-04-27Venezia0-2AC MilanSerie A
2024-09-14AC Milan4-0VeneziaSerie A
2022-01-09Venezia0-3AC MilanSerie A
2021-09-22AC Milan2-0VeneziaSerie A

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Before and after this match