Why this pick: Udinese vs Como
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Udinese 10, Como 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Udinese vs Como: model vs market
| Source | Udinese | Draw | Como |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 30% | 46% |
| Market | 21% | 27% | 52% |
| Published | 22% | 28% | 51% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Udinese vs Como odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Como, 7 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese | 4.53 | 4.60 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.53 | +0.00 |
| Como | 1.83 | 1.83 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Udinese and Como expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Udinese / Como)
- 1.01 / 1.37
- Defence rating (Udinese / Como)
- 1.00 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Udinese vs Como score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Udinese goals. Columns: Como goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Udinese vs Como goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Udinese vs Como
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Udinese | 22% | 4.64 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Como | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Udinese or draw) | 49% | 2.03 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Como) | 78% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Como win by 2+ | 25% | 4.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Udinese and Como recent form
Udinese
3W 1D 2L
Como
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Udinese vs Como head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Udinese 1 · draws 1 · Como 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Udinese | 0-0 | Como | Serie A |
| 2026-01-03 | Como | 1-0 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2025-01-20 | Como | 4-1 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2024-09-01 | Udinese | 1-0 | Como | Serie A |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Inter vs Monza 2026-08-22
- Genoa v Napoli — match page 2026-08-22
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Frosinone vs Juventus 2026-08-23
- Venezia v Lecce — match page 2026-08-23
- Atalanta vs Sassuolo — team news & stats 2026-08-23
- Torino vs AC Milan 2026-08-23
- Bologna v Lazio — match page 2026-08-24
Before and after this match
- Udinese, previous: Napoli – Udinese, 2026-05-24
- Udinese, next: Monza vs Udinese prediction
- Como, previous: Cremonese v Como analysis
- Como, next: Napoli v Como analysis