Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2

Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund

· Aspmyra Stadion, Hakata· Referee Urs Schnyder

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Borussia Dortmund to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Bodo/GlimtDrawBorussia Dortmund

Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBodo/GlimtDrawBorussia Dortmund
Model47%21%32%
Market33%24%43%
Published36%23%41%
Edge+4%-1%-3%
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Borussia Dortmund, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 2.05Now 2.19 +0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bodo/Glimt3.132.90-0.23
Draw4.004.00+0.00
Borussia Dortmund2.052.19+0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bodo/Glimt and Borussia Dortmund expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.35Bodo/Glimt
1.96Borussia Dortmund
Total expected goals
4.30
Attack rating (Bodo/Glimt / Borussia Dortmund)
1.67 / 1.48
Defence rating (Bodo/Glimt / Borussia Dortmund)
1.03 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.0% 2.0% 2.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1 2.6% 6.8% 6.1% 4.0% 3.0% 2 3.7% 7.3% 7.1% 4.6% 3.6% 3 2.9% 5.7% 5.6% 3.6% 2.8% 4+ 3.0% 5.8% 5.7% 3.7% 2.8%

Rows: Bodo/Glimt goals. Columns: Borussia Dortmund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 62%
Both teams to score
78%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bodo/Glimt36%2.75
Draw23%4.35
Borussia Dortmund41%2.46
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580%1.24
Under 2.520%5.12
Both teams to scoreYes78%1.28
No22%4.62
Double chance1X (Bodo/Glimt or draw)59%1.68
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Borussia Dortmund)64%1.57
Handicap -1Borussia Dortmund win by 2+17%5.77
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bodo/Glimt and Borussia Dortmund recent form

Bodo/Glimt 4W 0D 2L
Borussia Dortmund 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bodo/Glimt at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt at home only, Borussia Dortmund away only.

Injuries & availability

Bodo/Glimt absences

  • A. Mikkelsen groin injury
  • H. Evjen knee injury
  • I. Sjong injury
  • J. Kitolano knee injury
  • M. Riisnaes knee injury
  • O. L. Bjortuft suspended

Borussia Dortmund absences

  • E. Can knee injury
  • G. Konstantelias knee injury
  • J. Lerma muscle injury
  • N. Schlotterbeck rest

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Bodo/Glimt lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 12 N. Haikin
  2. 15 F. Bjørkan
  3. 5 H. Aleesami
  4. 6 J. Gundersen
  5. 20 F. Sjøvold
  6. 10 J. Hauge
  7. 19 S. Fet
  8. 7 P. Berg
  9. 8 S. Auklend
  10. 9 A. Helmersen
  11. 11 O. Didrik Blomberg

Bench: J. Faye Lund, V. Nielsen, U. Saltnes, O. Brynhildsen, J. Mvuka, I. Määttä, K. Solhaug

Borussia Dortmund lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 G. Kobel
  2. 5 R. Bensebaïni
  3. 3 W. Anton
  4. 22 Kouakou Joane Gadou
  5. 24 D. Svensson
  6. 7 J. Bellingham
  7. 25 J. Veerman
  8. 14 M. Beier
  9. 40 S. Inacio
  10. 19 K. Karetsas
  11. 21 Fábio Silva

Bench: F. Nmecha, S. Guirassy, C. Chukwuemeka, E. Nwaneri, M. Sabitzer, J. Ryerson, P. Drewes, A. Meyer, Kauã Prates, F. Mané, M. Albert, L. Reggiani

Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Bodo/Glimt 0 · draws 1 · Borussia Dortmund 0.

Bodo/GlimtDrawsBorussia Dortmund
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-10Borussia Dortmund2-2Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match