Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3

Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt

· Maradona Stadium, Naples· Referee Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Full time4 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Napoli to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NapoliDrawBodo/Glimt

Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNapoliDrawBodo/Glimt
Model41%24%35%
Market54%24%22%
Published51%24%25%
Edge-3%0%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Napoli, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 1.58Now 1.75 +0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Napoli1.581.75+0.18
Draw4.404.03-0.38
Bodo/Glimt5.044.33-0.71

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Napoli and Bodo/Glimt expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.81Napoli
1.66Bodo/Glimt
Total expected goals
3.47
Attack rating (Napoli / Bodo/Glimt)
1.09 / 1.48
Defence rating (Napoli / Bodo/Glimt)
0.86 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 4.2% 4.3% 2.4% 1.4% 1 4.7% 10.3% 7.8% 4.3% 2.6% 2 5.1% 8.4% 7.0% 3.9% 2.4% 3 3.1% 5.1% 4.2% 2.3% 1.4% 4+ 2.1% 3.5% 2.9% 1.6% 1.0%

Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: Bodo/Glimt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Napoli51%1.96
Draw24%4.20
Bodo/Glimt25%3.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.48
Under 2.533%3.07
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.46
No31%3.19
Double chance1X (Napoli or draw)75%1.34
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Bodo/Glimt)49%2.04
Handicap -1Napoli win by 2+22%4.49
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Napoli and Bodo/Glimt recent form

Napoli 2W 1D 3L
Bodo/Glimt 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Napoli at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Bodo/Glimt away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Napoli at home only, Bodo/Glimt away only.

Injuries & availability

Napoli absences

  • A. Buongiorno knee injury
  • A. Vergara calf injury
  • Alisson Santos muscle injury
  • C. Favasuli thigh injury
  • David Neres thigh injury
  • L. Marianucci off the roster

Bodo/Glimt absences

  • A. Mikkelsen groin injury
  • H. Evjen knee injury
  • I. Sjong injury
  • M. Riisnaes knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Napoli lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 A. Meret
  2. 16 Rafa Marín
  3. 13 Amir Rrahmani
  4. 22 G. Di Lorenzo
  5. 37 L. Spinazzola
  6. 8 S. McTominay
  7. 99 A. Zambo Anguissa
  8. 21 M. Politano
  9. 70 N. Lang
  10. 11 K. De Bruyne
  11. 19 R. Højlund

Bench: B. Badiashile, B. Gilmour, N. Contini, M. Olivera, L. Lucca, Giovane, S. Beukema, V. Milinković-Savić, S. Lobotka

Bodo/Glimt lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 12 N. Haikin
  2. 15 F. Bjørkan
  3. 4 O. Bjørtuft
  4. 6 J. Gundersen
  5. 20 F. Sjøvold
  6. 19 S. Fet
  7. 7 P. Berg
  8. 8 S. Auklend
  9. 10 J. Hauge
  10. 9 A. Helmersen
  11. 11 O. Didrik Blomberg

Bench: J. Faye Lund, V. Nielsen, H. Aleesami, U. Saltnes, J. Kitolano, O. Brynhildsen, J. Mvuka, I. Määttä

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match