Upcoming Primeira Liga fixtures
9 fixtures in our publication window — every row opens the full prediction; 51 more scheduled later this season.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Ours | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao vs AroucaPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | FamalicaoOur prob 42%Best odds 2.11 | -4% | 42% | 46% | C | 2.11 |
| Nacional vs Academico ViseuPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | Academico ViseuOur prob 43%Best odds 2.44 | +3% | 43% | 40% | C | 2.44 |
| Alverca vs Casa PiaPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | AlvercaOur prob 52%Best odds 1.76 | -2% | 52% | 55% | C | 1.76 |
| Sporting CP vs MoreirensePrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | Sporting CPOur prob 77%Best odds 1.19 | -4% | 77% | 82% | C | 1.19 |
| Santa Clara vs GIL VicentePrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | Santa ClaraOur prob 44%Best odds 2.29 | +2% | 44% | 42% | C | 2.29 |
| Estoril vs MaritimoPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | EstorilOur prob 43%Best odds 2.15 | -3% | 43% | 45% | C | 2.15 |
| Vitória SC vs FC PortoPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | FC PortoOur prob 54%Best odds 1.70 | -3% | 54% | 57% | C | 1.70 |
| Rio Ave vs SC BragaPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | SC BragaOur prob 59%Best odds 1.60 | -2% | 59% | 61% | C | 1.60 |
| Estrela vs BenficaPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | BenficaOur prob 75%Best odds 1.27 | -1% | 75% | 75% | C | 1.27 |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick (the Ours column) — our model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; Market = that de-vigged market probability. Edge = Ours minus Market; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
Primeira Liga table
2026/27 season · computed from played results — ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Form: last five, newest first.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto |
10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 4 | +21 | 30 | |
| 2 |  Benfica |
10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 8 | +19 | 25 | |
| 3 |  Sporting CP |
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 21 | |
| 4 |  Santa Clara |
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 21 | |
| 5 |  Arouca |
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 20 | |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu |
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 20 | |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente |
10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 15 | |
| 8 |  SC Braga |
10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 14 | |
| 9 |  Moreirense |
10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 14 | |
| 10 |  Alverca |
10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 | |
| 11 |  Famalicao |
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 | |
| 12 |  Estrela |
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 10 | |
| 13 |  Vitória SC |
10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 | |
| 14 |  Maritimo |
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 8 | |
| 15 |  Nacional |
10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 7 | |
| 16 |  Rio Ave |
10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 7 | |
| 17 |  Casa Pia |
10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 7 | |
| 18 |  Estoril |
10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 |
P = played, GD = goal difference, Pts = points. Not an imported table: it is rebuilt from the results in our database, so it may lag the official one by a match.
Primeira Liga trends
How Primeira Liga matches actually ended in the 2026/27: 90 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.
Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (308 played matches).
Top Primeira Liga teams by model rating
The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.
- Net rating
- +1.40
- Attack
- 2.29
- Defence
- 0.89
- Net rating
- +0.86
- Attack
- 1.84
- Defence
- 0.98
- Net rating
- +0.71
- Attack
- 1.82
- Defence
- 1.11
Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.
Top scorers in Primeira Liga
From the Primeira Liga scoring charts this season — goals first, then assists. Not a full squad list.
- V. PavlidisBenfica 10 G 3 A
- L. SuárezSporting CP 8 G 1 A
- G. PrestianniBenfica 6 G 4 A
- Gabri VeigaFC Porto 5 G 4 A
- Borja SainzFC Porto 5 G 1 A
- André ClóvisAcademico Viseu 5 G 1 A
- Gonçalo PaciênciaSanta Clara 5 G 1 A
- Pau VictorSC Braga 5 G 1 A
Recent Primeira Liga results
Last 6 played — what we predicted and what happened.
| Date | Match | Our pick | Our prob | Score | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente vs Vitória SCOur pick Vitória SC · 36% | Vitória SC to win | 36% | 0–0 | Missed | |
| Benfica vs AlvercaOur pick Benfica · 83% | Benfica to win | 83% | 1–0 | Correct | |
| SC Braga vs FamalicaoOur pick SC Braga · 50% | SC Braga to win | 50% | 3–0 | Correct | |
| Academico Viseu vs Rio AveOur pick Academico Viseu · 55% | Academico Viseu to win | 55% | 2–1 | Correct | |
| Maritimo vs Santa ClaraOur pick Santa Clara · 46% | Santa Clara to win | 46% | 0–2 | Correct | |
| Arouca vs NacionalOur pick Arouca · 57% | Arouca to win | 57% | 1–0 | Correct |
Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result.