Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2

Real Betis vs FC Porto

· Estadio de la Cartuja, Seville· Referee Clement Turpin

Full time3 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Real Betis to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Real BetisDrawFC Porto

Real Betis vs FC Porto: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReal BetisDrawFC Porto
Model33%26%41%
Market47%26%28%
Published43%26%31%
Edge-3%0%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Real Betis vs FC Porto odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Betis, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 2.15Now 2.05 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Real Betis2.152.05-0.10
Draw3.603.73+0.12
FC Porto3.103.42+0.32

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Betis and FC Porto expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.41Real Betis
1.61FC Porto
Total expected goals
3.02
Attack rating (Real Betis / FC Porto)
1.22 / 1.20
Defence rating (Real Betis / FC Porto)
1.04 / 0.62

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Betis vs FC Porto score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.0% 6.7% 6.3% 3.4% 1.9% 1 5.8% 12.2% 8.9% 4.8% 2.8% 2 4.9% 7.8% 6.3% 3.4% 1.9% 3 2.3% 3.7% 3.0% 1.6% 0.9% 4+ 1.1% 1.8% 1.4% 0.8% 0.4%

Rows: Real Betis goals. Columns: FC Porto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Betis vs FC Porto goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Betis vs FC Porto

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Real Betis43%2.32
Draw26%3.88
FC Porto31%3.21
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.71
Under 2.542%2.40
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.62
No38%2.62
Double chance1X (Real Betis or draw)69%1.45
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or FC Porto)57%1.76
Handicap -1Real Betis win by 2+15%6.50
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Real Betis and FC Porto recent form

Real Betis 5W 1D 0L
FC Porto 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Real Betis absences

  • A. Ruibal knee injury
  • I. Losada inactive
  • J. Firpo groin injury

FC Porto absences

  • D. Prpic off the roster
  • Gabriel Mec off the roster
  • J. Bednarek suspended
  • V. Sousa leg injury
  • William Gomes ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Real Betis lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Álvaro Vallés
  2. 11 Fran García
  3. 4 Natan
  4. 5 Marc Bartra
  5. 12 Ángel Ortiz
  6. 18 N. Deossa
  7. 21 Marc Roca
  8. 10 A. Ezzalzouli
  9. 22 Isco
  10. 7 Antony
  11. 19 T. Parrott

Bench: Héctor Bellerín, Diego Llorente, F. Bernal, Pablo Fornals, C. Hernández, Diego Conde, Álvaro Fidalgo, V. Gómez, Rodrigo Riquelme, G. Lo Celso, Dani Ceballos, J. A. Morante

FC Porto lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 99 Diogo Costa
  2. 74 Francisco Moura
  3. 4 J. Kiwior
  4. 13 P. Rosario
  5. 52 Martim Fernandes
  6. 10 Gabri Veiga
  7. 22 A. Varela
  8. 8 Victor Mow Froholdt
  9. 11 Pepê Aquino
  10. 19 André Silva
  11. 17 Borja Sainz

Bench: Samu, Z. Sanusi, Cláudio Ramos, Hwang In-Beom, N. Pérez, Alberto Baio, S. Giménez, Souza, S. Fofana, Luís Gomes, O. Pietuszewski, João Pedro Moreira Teixeira

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

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