Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3

FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven

· Estádio do Dragão, Porto· Referee Daniel Siebert

Full time0 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was FC Porto to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC PortoDrawPSV Eindhoven

FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC PortoDrawPSV Eindhoven
Model49%24%27%
Market63%21%17%
Published59%22%19%
Edge-3%+1%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.40.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Porto, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 1.73Now 1.53 -0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Porto1.731.53-0.20
Draw4.034.60+0.57
PSV Eindhoven4.315.72+1.41

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.93FC Porto
1.40PSV Eindhoven
Total expected goals
3.33
Attack rating (FC Porto / PSV Eindhoven)
1.19 / 1.43
Defence rating (FC Porto / PSV Eindhoven)
0.75 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 4.1% 3.5% 1.7% 0.8% 1 5.9% 10.6% 6.8% 3.2% 1.5% 2 6.6% 9.3% 6.5% 3.1% 1.5% 3 4.3% 6.0% 4.2% 2.0% 0.9% 4+ 3.2% 4.5% 3.1% 1.5% 0.7%

Rows: FC Porto goals. Columns: PSV Eindhoven goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Porto59%1.69
Draw22%4.63
PSV Eindhoven19%5.19
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.55
Under 2.535%2.83
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.53
No35%2.89
Double chance1X (FC Porto or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or PSV Eindhoven)41%2.45
Handicap -1FC Porto win by 2+28%3.54
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Porto and PSV Eindhoven recent form

FC Porto 4W 0D 2L
PSV Eindhoven 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Porto at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

PSV Eindhoven away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Porto at home only, PSV Eindhoven away only.

Injuries & availability

FC Porto absences

  • D. Prpic off the roster
  • Gabriel Mec off the roster
  • V. Sousa leg injury
  • William Gomes ankle injury

PSV Eindhoven absences

  • A. Nagalo injury
  • A. Plea surgery
  • J. Schouten knee injury
  • K. Sildillia surgery
  • P. Wanner foot injury
  • R. Pepi injury
  • R. van Bommel inactive
  • S. Lammers lacking match fitness
  • S. Ouaissa muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

FC Porto lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 99 Diogo Costa
  2. 12 Z. Sanusi
  3. 4 J. Kiwior
  4. 5 J. Bednarek
  5. 20 Alberto Baio
  6. 10 Gabri Veiga
  7. 13 P. Rosario
  8. 8 Victor Mow Froholdt
  9. 77 O. Pietuszewski
  10. 9 Samu
  11. 11 Pepê Aquino

Bench: Cláudio Ramos, Hwang In-Beom, Borja Sainz, N. Pérez, André Silva, A. Varela, Andorinha, S. Giménez, Souza, S. Fofana, Martim Fernandes, Francisco Moura

PSV Eindhoven lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 32 M. Kovář
  2. 18 F. Kostić
  3. 3 Yarek Gasiorowski
  4. 2 L. Geertruida
  5. 8 S. Dest
  6. 17 Mauro Júnior
  7. 24 K. Sano
  8. 5 I. Perišić
  9. 20 G. Til
  10. 19 E. Bajraktarevic
  11. 21 S. Mijnans

Bench: N. Olij, A. Obispo, R. Flamingo, M. Hansen, D. Man, N. Fernandez, A. Santos, A. Bouhamdi, S. Cornecion, T. Smolenaars

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match