Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 7

Augsburg vs Union Berlin

· WWK Arena, Augsburg· Referee Robin Braun

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Augsburg to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AugsburgDrawUnion Berlin

Why this pick: Augsburg vs Union Berlin

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Augsburg 10, Union Berlin 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

AugsburgUnion Berlin
2.29 xG per 90 1.37
2.14 npxG per 90 1.37
22.0 PPDA 15.6
7.0 Deep completions per 90 4.5
1.39 xPTS per 90 1.10

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Augsburg vs Union Berlin: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAugsburgDrawUnion Berlin
Model53%21%26%
Market52%23%24%
Published52%23%25%
Edge0%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.84 vs 1.82.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Augsburg vs Union Berlin odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Augsburg, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.75Now 1.83 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Augsburg1.751.83+0.08
Draw4.104.10+0.00
Union Berlin4.303.96-0.34

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Augsburg and Union Berlin expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.84Augsburg
1.82Union Berlin
Total expected goals
4.66
Attack rating (Augsburg / Union Berlin)
1.26 / 0.93
Defence rating (Augsburg / Union Berlin)
1.35 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Augsburg vs Union Berlin score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.4% 1.1% 2.1% 1.3% 0.9% 1 2.0% 7.0% 5.3% 3.2% 2.2% 2 4.1% 7.5% 6.8% 4.1% 2.9% 3 3.5% 6.4% 5.8% 3.5% 2.4% 4+ 4.1% 7.5% 6.8% 4.2% 2.9%

Rows: Augsburg goals. Columns: Union Berlin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Augsburg vs Union Berlin goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 81%
Over 3.5 64%
Both teams to score
79%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Augsburg vs Union Berlin

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Augsburg52%1.91
Draw23%4.39
Union Berlin25%4.05
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581%1.23
Under 2.519%5.33
Both teams to scoreYes79%1.27
No21%4.66
Double chance1X (Augsburg or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Union Berlin)48%2.10
Handicap -1Augsburg win by 2+35%2.89
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Augsburg and Union Berlin recent form

Augsburg 2W 2D 2L
Union Berlin 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Augsburg at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.

Union Berlin away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
5.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Augsburg at home only, Union Berlin away only.

Injuries & availability

Augsburg absences

  • A. Claude-Maurice muscle injury
  • N. Banks knee injury
  • S. Mounie injury

Union Berlin absences

  • A. Ilic illness
  • A. Markgraf knee injury
  • J. Juranovic achilles tendon injury
  • K. Imeri injury
  • S. Nsoki muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Augsburg lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 F. Dahmen
  2. 2 C. Brackelmann
  3. 5 C. Matsima
  4. 35 Abdulay Bah
  5. 16 Hennes Behrens
  6. 32 F. Rieder
  7. 4 H. Massengo
  8. 27 M. Wolf
  9. 21 A. Ibrahimović
  10. 30 A. Kade
  11. 11 M. Gregoritsch

Bench: J. Gouweleeuw, Seol Young-Woo, Rodrigo Ribeiro, M. Kömür, Y. Keitel, R. Fellhauer, N. Labrović, T. Schnitzer, U. Ogundu

Union Berlin lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 F. Rønnow
  2. 15 T. Rothe
  3. 2 F. Uduokhai
  4. 4 Z. Van Den Bosch
  5. 19 J. Haberer
  6. 8 R. Khedira
  7. 13 A. Schäfer
  8. 9 Livan Burcu
  9. 20 M. Aebischer
  10. 11 Jeong Woo-Yeong
  11. 21 T. Skarke

Bench: A. Kemlein, O. Burke, L. Querfeld, D. Köhn, M. Ljubičić, C. Trimmel, E. Latte Lath, M. Raab, M. Gray

Augsburg vs Union Berlin head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Augsburg 3 · draws 3 · Union Berlin 4.

AugsburgDrawsUnion Berlin
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Union Berlin4-0AugsburgBundesliga
2026-01-15Augsburg1-1Union BerlinBundesliga
2025-05-17Augsburg1-2Union BerlinBundesliga
2025-01-15Union Berlin0-2AugsburgBundesliga
2024-04-12Augsburg2-0Union BerlinBundesliga
2023-11-25Union Berlin1-1AugsburgBundesliga
2023-05-06Augsburg1-0Union BerlinBundesliga
2023-01-07Augsburg0-1Union BerlinFriendlies Clubs
2023-01-07Union Berlin1-0AugsburgFriendlies Clubs
2022-11-09Union Berlin2-2AugsburgBundesliga

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match