Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 7

Freiburg vs Bayern Munich

· Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg· Referee Felix Zwayer

Full time1 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Bayern Munich to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FreiburgDrawBayern Munich

Why this pick: Freiburg vs Bayern Munich

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Freiburg 10, Bayern Munich 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

FreiburgBayern Munich
1.82 xG per 90 3.80
1.82 npxG per 90 3.68
14.4 PPDA 8.0
6.1 Deep completions per 90 19.2
1.82 xPTS per 90 2.77

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Freiburg vs Bayern Munich: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFreiburgDrawBayern Munich
Model25%21%54%
Market17%19%64%
Published19%19%61%
Edge+2%+1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 1.93.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Freiburg vs Bayern Munich odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bayern Munich, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.30Now 1.51 +0.21
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Freiburg8.005.50-2.50
Draw6.005.10-0.90
Bayern Munich1.301.51+0.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Freiburg and Bayern Munich expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.93Freiburg
2.50Bayern Munich
Total expected goals
4.43
Attack rating (Freiburg / Bayern Munich)
1.31 / 1.81
Defence rating (Freiburg / Bayern Munich)
0.96 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Freiburg vs Bayern Munich score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.7% 2.4% 4.5% 3.8% 4.3% 1 1.3% 7.5% 7.9% 6.5% 7.4% 2 2.2% 5.5% 6.8% 5.7% 6.4% 3 1.3% 3.2% 3.9% 3.3% 3.7% 4+ 0.8% 2.0% 2.5% 2.1% 2.4%

Rows: Freiburg goals. Columns: Bayern Munich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Freiburg vs Bayern Munich goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 79%
Over 3.5 61%
Both teams to score
77%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Freiburg vs Bayern Munich

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Freiburg19%5.16
Draw19%5.13
Bayern Munich61%1.64
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.579%1.26
Under 2.521%4.86
Both teams to scoreYes77%1.30
No23%4.32
Double chance1X (Freiburg or draw)39%2.57
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Bayern Munich)81%1.24
Handicap -1Bayern Munich win by 2+35%2.87
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Freiburg and Bayern Munich recent form

Freiburg 3W 1D 2L
Bayern Munich 3W 3D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Freiburg at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Bayern Munich away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.7 goals per match.
  • They average 6.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Freiburg at home only, Bayern Munich away only.

Injuries & availability

Freiburg absences

  • B. Yilmaz lacking match fitness
  • Y. Engelhardt injury

Bayern Munich absences

  • A. Pavlovic calf injury
  • J. Kimmich personal reasons
  • J. Musiala muscle injury
  • Kim Min-Jae knee injury
  • L. Diaz muscle injury
  • M. Neuer foot injury
  • T. Buchmann knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Freiburg lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Backhaus
  2. 33 J. Makengo
  3. 3 P. Lienhart
  4. 28 M. Ginter
  5. 29 P. Treu
  6. 6 P. Osterhage
  7. 8 M. Eggestein
  8. 7 D. Scherhant
  9. 14 Y. Suzuki
  10. 19 J. Beste
  11. 9 L. Höler

Bench: L. Kübler, R. Yamamoto, F. Müller, Cyriaque Kalou Irié, C. Günter, I. Matanović, V. Grifo, M. Rosenfelder, K. Goto

Bayern Munich lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 40 J. Urbig
  2. 11 N. Brown
  3. 4 J. Tah
  4. 2 D. Upamecano
  5. 44 J. Stanišić
  6. 8 T. Bischof
  7. 27 K. Laimer
  8. 7 S. Gnabry
  9. 17 M. Olise
  10. 42 L. Karl
  11. 9 H. Kane

Bench: A. Davies, H. Ito, S. Boey, S. Ulreich, Cassiano Kiala, I. Saibari, T. Binder, David Daiber

Freiburg vs Bayern Munich head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Freiburg 1 · draws 1 · Bayern Munich 8.

FreiburgDrawsBayern Munich
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-04Freiburg2-3Bayern MunichBundesliga
2025-11-22Bayern Munich6-2FreiburgBundesliga
2025-01-25Freiburg1-2Bayern MunichBundesliga
2024-09-01Bayern Munich2-0FreiburgBundesliga
2024-03-01Freiburg2-2Bayern MunichBundesliga
2023-10-08Bayern Munich3-0FreiburgBundesliga
2023-04-08Freiburg0-1Bayern MunichBundesliga
2023-04-04Bayern Munich1-2FreiburgDFB Pokal
2022-10-16Bayern Munich5-0FreiburgBundesliga
2022-04-02Freiburg1-4Bayern MunichBundesliga

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match