Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 7

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach

· MHP Arena, Stuttgart· Referee Matthias Jollenbeck

Full time2 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was VfB Stuttgart to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VfB StuttgartDrawBorussia M.Gladbach

Why this pick: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (VfB Stuttgart 10, Borussia M.Gladbach 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

VfB StuttgartBorussia M.Gladbach
2.16 xG per 90 1.43
2.16 npxG per 90 1.28
10.2 PPDA 11.7
8.4 Deep completions per 90 6.7
1.12 xPTS per 90 0.84

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVfB StuttgartDrawBorussia M.Gladbach
Model59%21%20%
Market71%16%13%
Published68%17%15%
Edge-3%+1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.83 vs 1.51.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach odds movement

Median bookmaker price on VfB Stuttgart, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.40Now 1.35 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
VfB Stuttgart1.401.35-0.05
Draw5.205.95+0.75
Borussia M.Gladbach6.707.50+0.80

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

VfB Stuttgart and Borussia M.Gladbach expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.83VfB Stuttgart
1.51Borussia M.Gladbach
Total expected goals
4.34
Attack rating (VfB Stuttgart / Borussia M.Gladbach)
1.25 / 1.00
Defence rating (VfB Stuttgart / Borussia M.Gladbach)
1.04 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.1% 1.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 1 3.1% 8.0% 5.0% 2.5% 1.3% 2 5.6% 8.5% 6.4% 3.2% 1.7% 3 4.8% 7.2% 5.4% 2.7% 1.4% 4+ 5.6% 8.4% 6.3% 3.2% 1.7%

Rows: VfB Stuttgart goals. Columns: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 77%
Over 3.5 58%
Both teams to score
73%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2VfB Stuttgart68%1.47
Draw17%5.77
Borussia M.Gladbach15%6.81
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577%1.30
Under 2.523%4.34
Both teams to scoreYes73%1.37
No27%3.72
Double chance1X (VfB Stuttgart or draw)85%1.17
12 (either side)83%1.21
X2 (draw or Borussia M.Gladbach)32%3.12
Handicap -1VfB Stuttgart win by 2+40%2.53
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

VfB Stuttgart and Borussia M.Gladbach recent form

VfB Stuttgart 2W 1D 3L
Borussia M.Gladbach 0W 0D 6L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

VfB Stuttgart at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.

Borussia M.Gladbach away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
3.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart at home only, Borussia M.Gladbach away only.

Injuries & availability

VfB Stuttgart absences

  • D. Zagadou muscle injury
  • J. Diehl muscle injury
  • J. Vagnoman muscle injury
  • N. Nartey thigh injury
  • T. Tomas muscle injury

Borussia M.Gladbach absences

  • E. Leopold knee injury
  • F. Fleck muscle injury
  • F. Honorat muscle injury
  • I. Lidberg thigh injury
  • J. Castrop shoulder injury
  • J. Leszczynski knee injury
  • K. Itakura ankle injury
  • N. Kuhn muscle injury
  • T. Kleindienst muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

VfB Stuttgart lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 41 D. Seimen
  2. 7 M. Mittelstädt
  3. 29 Finn Jeltsch
  4. 3 R. Hendriks
  5. 10 C. Führich
  6. 6 A. Stiller
  7. 16 A. Karazor
  8. 22 L. Assignon
  9. 44 L. Sauer
  10. 17 D. Pejčinović
  11. 9 E. Demirović

Bench: F. Bredlow, A. Al Dakhil, B. El Khannouss, J. Leweling, L. Stergiou, G. Prömel, J. Chabot, D. Undav, Y. Spalt

Borussia M.Gladbach lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 M. Nicolas
  2. 2 F. Chiarodia
  3. 16 P. Sander
  4. 14 D. Hashioka
  5. 26 L. Ullrich
  6. 10 F. Neuhaus
  7. 47 Z. Uno
  8. 29 J. Scally
  9. 38 H. Bolin
  10. 36 W. Mohya
  11. 18 S. Machino

Bench: K. Stöger, D. Herold, Y. Konoplya, R. Hack, D. Batz, M. Nguefack, J. Uwakhonye, I. M. Danfa

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 6 · draws 0 · Borussia M.Gladbach 3.

VfB StuttgartDrawsBorussia M.Gladbach
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-25Borussia M.Gladbach0-3VfB StuttgartBundesliga
2025-08-30VfB Stuttgart1-0Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2025-02-01VfB Stuttgart1-2Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2024-09-14Borussia M.Gladbach1-3VfB StuttgartBundesliga
2024-05-18VfB Stuttgart4-0Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2024-01-14Borussia M.Gladbach3-1VfB StuttgartBundesliga
2023-04-29VfB Stuttgart2-1Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2022-11-04Borussia M.Gladbach3-1VfB StuttgartBundesliga
2022-03-05VfB Stuttgart3-2Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match