Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 7

Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen

· Prezero Arena, Sinsheim· Referee Daniel Siebert

Full time3 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Bayer Leverkusen to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
HoffenheimDrawBayer Leverkusen

Why this pick: Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hoffenheim 10, Bayer Leverkusen 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

HoffenheimBayer Leverkusen
1.94 xG per 90 2.52
1.83 npxG per 90 2.42
8.5 PPDA 11.8
13.0 Deep completions per 90 14.6
1.60 xPTS per 90 2.18

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHoffenheimDrawBayer Leverkusen
Model27%27%46%
Market32%23%44%
Published31%24%45%
Edge-1%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.53.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bayer Leverkusen, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.10Now 2.15 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Hoffenheim3.052.95-0.10
Draw3.954.12+0.17
Bayer Leverkusen2.102.15+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.53Hoffenheim
1.84Bayer Leverkusen
Total expected goals
3.38
Attack rating (Hoffenheim / Bayer Leverkusen)
1.18 / 1.40
Defence rating (Hoffenheim / Bayer Leverkusen)
0.91 / 0.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.0% 5.3% 6.8% 4.2% 2.9% 1 3.5% 12.2% 9.3% 5.7% 4.0% 2 3.8% 7.0% 6.4% 4.0% 2.8% 3 1.7% 3.2% 3.0% 1.8% 1.3% 4+ 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% 0.9% 0.6%

Rows: Hoffenheim goals. Columns: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Hoffenheim31%3.23
Draw24%4.15
Bayer Leverkusen45%2.23
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.60
Under 2.537%2.67
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.54
No35%2.86
Double chance1X (Hoffenheim or draw)55%1.82
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Bayer Leverkusen)69%1.45
Handicap -1Bayer Leverkusen win by 2+27%3.72
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen recent form

Hoffenheim 2W 0D 4L
Bayer Leverkusen 6W 0D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Hoffenheim at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bayer Leverkusen away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
2.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Hoffenheim at home only, Bayer Leverkusen away only.

Injuries & availability

Hoffenheim absences

  • A. Hajdari foot injury
  • B. Conte injury
  • N. De Cat knee injury
  • P. Wimmer thigh injury

Bayer Leverkusen absences

  • C. Kofane muscle injury
  • E. Ben Seghir muscle injury
  • G. Doue calf injury
  • K. Eichhorn illness
  • M. Culbreath foot injury
  • M. Terrier muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Hoffenheim lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 O. Baumann
  2. 39 M. Rots
  3. 28 K. Machida
  4. 5 O. Kabak
  5. 34 V. Coufal
  6. 18 W. Burger
  7. 7 L. Avdullahu
  8. 10 A. Hložek
  9. 11 F. Asllani
  10. 22 A. Prass
  11. 14 A. Daghim

Bench: R. Hranáč, Max Moerstedt, Bernardo, V. Gendrey, B. Conté, A. Kramarić, Natnael Abraha, Cajetan Benjamin Lenz, L. Philipp

Bayer Leverkusen lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Flekken
  2. 3 Miguel Gutiérrez
  3. 2 F. Medina
  4. 12 E. Tapsoba
  5. 4 J. Quansah
  6. 6 E. Fernández
  7. 24 Aleix García
  8. 23 N. Tella
  9. 30 I. Maza
  10. 19 M. Diaby
  11. 14 P. Schick

Bench: L. Badé, J. Hofmann, R. Andrich, Afonso Moreira, M. Tillman, T. Oermann, Lucas Vázquez, V. Boniface, J. Blaswich

Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Hoffenheim 3 · draws 1 · Bayer Leverkusen 6.

HoffenheimDrawsBayer Leverkusen
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-17Hoffenheim1-0Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
2025-08-23Bayer Leverkusen1-2HoffenheimBundesliga
2025-02-02Bayer Leverkusen3-1HoffenheimBundesliga
2024-09-14Hoffenheim1-4Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
2024-03-30Bayer Leverkusen2-1HoffenheimBundesliga
2023-11-04Hoffenheim2-3Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
2023-02-11Hoffenheim1-3Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
2022-08-20Bayer Leverkusen0-3HoffenheimBundesliga
2022-05-07Hoffenheim2-4Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
2021-12-15Bayer Leverkusen2-2HoffenheimBundesliga

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match