Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 7

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg

· Leipzig Red Bull Arena, Leipzig· Referee Bastian Dankert

Full time4 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was RasenBallsport Leipzig to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RasenBallsport LeipzigDrawSV Elversberg

Why this pick: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (RasenBallsport Leipzig 10, SV Elversberg 6). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

RasenBallsport LeipzigSV Elversberg
2.24 xG per 90 1.76
2.24 npxG per 90 1.48
13.8 PPDA 12.4
9.9 Deep completions per 90 6.0
1.60 xPTS per 90 0.91

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRasenBallsport LeipzigDrawSV Elversberg
Model32%22%46%
Market66%18%15%
Published58%19%23%
Edge-9%+1%+8%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on RasenBallsport Leipzig, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.30Now 1.44 +0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
RasenBallsport Leipzig1.301.44+0.14
Draw5.805.19-0.61
SV Elversberg8.256.27-1.98

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

RasenBallsport Leipzig and SV Elversberg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.17RasenBallsport Leipzig
2.35SV Elversberg
Total expected goals
4.52
Attack rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / SV Elversberg)
1.19 / 1.26
Defence rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / SV Elversberg)
1.28 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 1.9% 3.7% 2.9% 3.0% 1 1.4% 7.5% 7.3% 5.7% 5.8% 2 2.6% 6.1% 7.1% 5.6% 5.7% 3 1.7% 3.9% 4.6% 3.6% 3.7% 4+ 1.3% 3.0% 3.5% 2.8% 2.8%

Rows: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Columns: SV Elversberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 62%
Both teams to score
79%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2RasenBallsport Leipzig58%1.73
Draw19%5.17
SV Elversberg23%4.35
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580%1.25
Under 2.520%5.06
Both teams to scoreYes79%1.27
No21%4.73
Double chance1X (RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or SV Elversberg)42%2.36
Handicap -1RasenBallsport Leipzig win by 2+17%5.80
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

RasenBallsport Leipzig and SV Elversberg recent form

RasenBallsport Leipzig 3W 0D 3L
SV Elversberg 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

RasenBallsport Leipzig at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.67
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
3 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They average 4.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

SV Elversberg away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: RasenBallsport Leipzig at home only, SV Elversberg away only.

Injuries & availability

RasenBallsport Leipzig absences

  • A. Ouedraogo shoulder injury
  • M. Guiu hamstring injury

SV Elversberg absences

  • F. Onyeka foot injury
  • L. Seifert ankle injury
  • N. Darvich injury
  • T. Zimmerschied ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

RasenBallsport Leipzig lineup · 4-5-1

  1. 1 Ø. Nyland
  2. 35 Max Finkgräfe
  3. 3 M. Estève
  4. 4 W. Orbán
  5. 39 B. Henrichs
  6. 7 A. Nusa
  7. 6 E. Banzuzi
  8. 21 N. El Aynaoui
  9. 20 R. Reitz
  10. 30 A. Maksimović
  11. 27 T. Gomis

Bench: A. Koné, B. Gruda, N. Seiwald, C. Baumgartner, R. Baku, D. Raum, C. Lukeba, M. Vandevoordt, Rômulo

SV Elversberg lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 20 N. Kristof
  2. 21 L. Günther
  3. 31 M. Rohr
  4. 19 L. Pinckert
  5. 30 J. Gyamerah
  6. 8 Ł. Poręba
  7. 43 F. Keidel
  8. 7 M. Krattenmacher
  9. 17 F. Schmahl
  10. 25 L. Petkov
  11. 42 D. Mokwa

Bench: N. Mickelson, F. Le Joncour, A. Condé, N. Futkeu, R. Adam, L. Sirch, T. Boss, William Cole Campbell, Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV Elversberg head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: RasenBallsport Leipzig 1 · draws 0 · SV Elversberg 1.

RasenBallsport LeipzigDrawsSV Elversberg
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2014-03-02RasenBallsport Leipzig2-0SV Elversberg3. Liga
2013-09-07SV Elversberg1-0RasenBallsport Leipzig3. Liga

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match