Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 7

Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen

· MEWA Arena, Mainz· Referee Florian Badstubner

Full time2 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Mainz 05 to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Mainz 05DrawWerder Bremen

Why this pick: Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Mainz 05 10, Werder Bremen 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Mainz 05Werder Bremen
2.63 xG per 90 1.26
2.54 npxG per 90 1.18
14.3 PPDA 15.8
7.8 Deep completions per 90 7.4
1.89 xPTS per 90 0.96

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMainz 05DrawWerder Bremen
Model65%19%15%
Market55%23%22%
Published57%22%20%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.96 vs 1.28.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Mainz 05 below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Mainz 05, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.79Now 1.75 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Mainz 051.791.75-0.04
Draw4.004.09+0.09
Werder Bremen4.104.40+0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.96Mainz 05
1.28Werder Bremen
Total expected goals
4.24
Attack rating (Mainz 05 / Werder Bremen)
1.51 / 0.91
Defence rating (Mainz 05 / Werder Bremen)
0.98 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.2% 1.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 1 3.8% 7.9% 4.2% 1.8% 0.8% 2 6.8% 8.8% 5.6% 2.4% 1.0% 3 6.1% 7.8% 5.0% 2.1% 0.9% 4+ 7.7% 9.9% 6.3% 2.7% 1.2%

Rows: Mainz 05 goals. Columns: Werder Bremen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Mainz 0557%1.74
Draw22%4.45
Werder Bremen20%4.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.07
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.46
No31%3.18
Double chance1X (Mainz 05 or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or Werder Bremen)43%2.35
Handicap -1Mainz 05 win by 2+46%2.17
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen recent form

Mainz 05 3W 1D 2L
Werder Bremen 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Mainz 05 at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 3.3 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Werder Bremen away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Mainz 05 at home only, Werder Bremen away only.

Injuries & availability

Mainz 05 absences

  • D. Kohr foot injury
  • O. Ruoppi knee injury
  • R. Zentner hand injury
  • Silas broken shinbone

Werder Bremen absences

  • F. Agu calf injury
  • J. Njinmah thigh injury
  • J. Stage muscle injury
  • K. Topp knee injury
  • M. N'Diaye groin injury
  • N. Stark muscle injury
  • S. Alvero calf injury
  • S. Musah muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Mainz 05 lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 A. Schwolow
  2. 48 K. Potulski
  3. 4 S. Posch
  4. 21 D. da Costa
  5. 2 P. Mwene
  6. 7 Lee Jae-Sung
  7. 6 K. Sano
  8. 10 N. Amiri
  9. 19 A. Caci
  10. 23 S. Becker
  11. 9 P. Tietz

Bench: F. Gruber, E. Martel, P. Nebel, R. Königsdörffer, L. Maloney, B. Hollerbach, S. Widmer, M. Kinzig, R. Nakuzola

Werder Bremen lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 K. Hein
  2. 2 O. Deman
  3. 32 M. Friedl
  4. 5 A. Pieper
  5. 13 Arthur
  6. 44 Y. Regeer
  7. 15 L. Reis
  8. 17 M. Grüll
  9. 20 Chuky San José
  10. 8 M. Weiser
  11. 10 N. Füllkrug

Bench: O. Wójcik, S. Lynen, E. Dinkçi, K. Quetant, Dariusz Stalmach, C. Itten, A. Schlager, Mick Schmetgens, P. Erevbenagie

Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Mainz 05 3 · draws 2 · Werder Bremen 5.

Mainz 05DrawsWerder Bremen
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-15Werder Bremen0-2Mainz 05Bundesliga
2025-11-01Mainz 051-1Werder BremenBundesliga
2025-01-31Werder Bremen1-0Mainz 05Bundesliga
2024-09-15Mainz 051-2Werder BremenBundesliga
2024-02-03Mainz 050-1Werder BremenBundesliga
2023-09-02Werder Bremen4-0Mainz 05Bundesliga
2023-04-08Mainz 052-2Werder BremenBundesliga
2022-10-15Werder Bremen0-2Mainz 05Bundesliga
2021-04-21Werder Bremen0-1Mainz 05Bundesliga
2020-12-19Mainz 050-1Werder BremenBundesliga

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

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