Updated

La Liga · Matchday 9

Celta Vigo vs Alaves

· Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo· Referee Jose Luis Munuera Montero

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Celta Vigo to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Celta VigoDrawAlaves

Why this pick: Celta Vigo vs Alaves

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Celta Vigo 10, Alaves 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Celta VigoAlaves
1.00 xG per 90 1.47
0.91 npxG per 90 1.39
14.0 PPDA 12.8
5.8 Deep completions per 90 3.4
1.21 xPTS per 90 1.57

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Celta Vigo vs Alaves: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCelta VigoDrawAlaves
Model35%33%32%
Market43%29%28%
Published41%30%29%
Edge-2%+1%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Celta Vigo vs Alaves odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Celta Vigo, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.00Now 2.20 +0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Celta Vigo2.002.20+0.20
Draw3.403.31-0.08
Alaves3.873.42-0.45

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Celta Vigo and Alaves expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.15Celta Vigo
1.15Alaves
Total expected goals
2.30
Attack rating (Celta Vigo / Alaves)
0.78 / 1.00
Defence rating (Celta Vigo / Alaves)
1.00 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Celta Vigo vs Alaves score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.1% 8.3% 6.3% 2.4% 0.9% 1 8.8% 15.8% 7.6% 2.9% 1.1% 2 6.9% 7.9% 4.6% 1.8% 0.6% 3 2.8% 3.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Celta Vigo goals. Columns: Alaves goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Celta Vigo vs Alaves goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Celta Vigo vs Alaves

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Celta Vigo41%2.43
Draw30%3.35
Alaves29%3.46
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.39
Under 2.558%1.72
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.98
No49%2.02
Double chance1X (Celta Vigo or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or Alaves)59%1.70
Handicap -1Celta Vigo win by 2+16%6.26
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Celta Vigo and Alaves recent form

Celta Vigo 1W 3D 2L
Alaves 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Celta Vigo at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alaves away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Celta Vigo at home only, Alaves away only.

Injuries & availability

Celta Vigo absences

  • B. Iglesias calf injury
  • C. Starfelt muscle injury
  • J. El Abdellaoui knee injury
  • M. Roman knee injury
  • P. Duran calf injury

Alaves absences

  • A. Perez suspended
  • F. Garces suspended
  • M. Rodriguez ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Celta Vigo lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 13 I. Radu
  2. 21 S. Cáceres
  3. 18 Yoel Lago
  4. 20 Javi Rodríguez
  5. 23 Hugo Álvarez
  6. 6 I. Moriba
  7. 30 H. Burcio
  8. 5 Sergio Carreira
  9. 19 W. Swedberg
  10. 9 Ferran Jutglà
  11. 24 C. Driouech

Bench: A. Bayındır, Marcos Alonso, A. Faye, Iago Aspas, Aleix Febas, Álvaro Núñez, Hugo González, Javi Rueda, Javi Galán, Iván Villar, Andrés Antañón, Ángel Arcos

Alaves lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 Sivera
  2. 21 A. Rebbach
  3. 2 N. Valentini
  4. 16 V. Koski
  5. 17 Jonny
  6. 14 N. Tenaglia
  7. 10 Carles Aleñá
  8. 8 Antonio Blanco
  9. 19 Pablo Ibáñez
  10. 15 L. Boyé
  11. 11 Toni Martínez

Bench: Yusi, Denis Suárez, Guevara, M. Díaz, Hugo Novoa, A. Giménez, Aitor Mañas, Miguel Rodríguez, C. Benavídez, Selu Diallo, X. Olaiz, G. Swiderski

Celta Vigo vs Alaves head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Celta Vigo 6 · draws 2 · Alaves 2.

Celta VigoDrawsAlaves
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-22Celta Vigo3-4AlavesLa Liga
2025-11-22Alaves0-1Celta VigoLa Liga
2025-01-27Alaves1-1Celta VigoLa Liga
2024-08-16Celta Vigo2-1AlavesLa Liga
2024-04-27Alaves3-0Celta VigoLa Liga
2023-09-28Celta Vigo1-1AlavesLa Liga
2022-05-07Celta Vigo4-0AlavesLa Liga
2021-11-27Alaves1-2Celta VigoLa Liga
2021-04-04Alaves1-3Celta VigoLa Liga
2020-12-20Celta Vigo2-0AlavesLa Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match