Why this pick: Alaves vs Malaga
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Alaves 10, Malaga 9). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Alaves vs Malaga: model vs market
| Source | Alaves | Draw | Malaga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 26% | 13% |
| Market | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Published | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Alaves vs Malaga odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alaves, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.68 | 1.66 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.80 | +0.10 |
| Malaga | 4.50 | 5.75 | +1.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alaves and Malaga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Alaves / Malaga)
- 0.98 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Alaves / Malaga)
- 0.88 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alaves vs Malaga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alaves goals. Columns: Malaga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alaves vs Malaga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alaves vs Malaga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Malaga | 16% | 6.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.02 |
| No | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alaves or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Malaga) | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alaves win by 2+ | 38% | 2.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Alaves and Malaga recent form
Alaves
1W 1D 4L
Malaga
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alaves at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malaga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alaves at home only, Malaga away only.
Injuries & availability
Alaves absences
-
F. Garces
suspended
-
M. Rodriguez
ankle injury
Malaga absences
-
A. Ochoa
knee injury
-
D. Murillo
knee injury
- J. Cruz muscle injury
-
J. Lobete
knee injury
- J. Munoz calf injury
- P. Martinez foot injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Alaves lineup · 5-3-2
- 1 Sivera
- 21 A. Rebbach
- 2 N. Valentini
- 16 V. Koski
- 14 N. Tenaglia
- 7 Angel Pérez
- 10 Carles Aleñá
- 8 Antonio Blanco
- 19 Pablo Ibáñez
- 9 M. Díaz
- 15 L. Boyé
Bench: Yusi, Denis Suárez, Toni Martínez, Hugo Novoa, A. Giménez, Jonny, Aitor Mañas, Miguel Rodríguez, C. Benavídez, Selu Diallo, X. Olaiz, Rubén Montero
Malaga lineup · 4-1-4-1
- 1 Alfonso Herrero
- 31 Rafita
- 15 Ángel Recio
- 4 Einar Galilea
- 3 Puga
- 6 Ramón Enríquez
- 39 Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh
- 8 Carlos Dotor
- 22 Dani Lorenzo
- 10 David Larrubia
- 21 Adrián Niño Heredia
Bench: J. Cajuste, Álex Pastor, H. Abaida, Chupe, José Salinas, Carlos López, Rafa Rodríguez, Eneko Jauregi, Fernando Calero, Izan Merino, Juan Berrocal, J. Fernandez
Alaves vs Malaga head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Alaves 4 · draws 1 · Malaga 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | Alaves | 2-1 | Malaga | Segunda División |
| 2022-12-18 | Malaga | 1-0 | Alaves | Segunda División |
| 2018-05-06 | Malaga | 0-3 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2017-12-21 | Alaves | 1-0 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2017-03-11 | Malaga | 1-2 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2016-10-16 | Alaves | 1-1 | Malaga | La Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Rayo Vallecano vs Elche 2026-10-24
- Racing Santander vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Valencia vs Villarreal 2026-10-24
- Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Athletic Club vs Getafe 2026-10-25
- Celta Vigo vs Real Betis 2026-10-25
- Real Sociedad v Levante — match page 2026-10-25
- Barcelona v Real Madrid — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Alaves, previous: Celta Vigo v Alaves analysis
- Alaves, next: Barcelona – Alaves, 2026-10-31
- Malaga, previous: Malaga v Real Sociedad analysis
- Malaga, next: Real Betis v Malaga analysis