Updated

La Liga · Matchday 9

Real Madrid vs Sevilla

· Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid· Referee Mateo Busquets Ferrer

Full time4 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Real Madrid to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Real MadridDrawSevilla

Why this pick: Real Madrid vs Sevilla

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Madrid 10, Sevilla 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Real MadridSevilla
2.64 xG per 90 1.20
2.45 npxG per 90 1.06
14.2 PPDA 11.1
14.1 Deep completions per 90 6.3
2.33 xPTS per 90 1.18

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Real Madrid vs Sevilla: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReal MadridDrawSevilla
Model72%17%10%
Market77%14%9%
Published76%15%9%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.06.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Real Madrid vs Sevilla odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Madrid, 30 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.26Now 1.25 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Real Madrid1.261.25-0.01
Draw5.256.65+1.40
Sevilla11.5010.82-0.68

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Madrid and Sevilla expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.65Real Madrid
1.06Sevilla
Total expected goals
3.71
Attack rating (Real Madrid / Sevilla)
1.57 / 0.93
Defence rating (Real Madrid / Sevilla)
0.98 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Madrid vs Sevilla score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.4% 1.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1 4.7% 7.6% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 2 8.3% 8.8% 4.7% 1.7% 0.6% 3 7.7% 8.2% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5% 4+ 10.5% 11.2% 5.9% 2.1% 0.7%

Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Sevilla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Madrid vs Sevilla goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 54%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Madrid vs Sevilla

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Real Madrid76%1.32
Draw15%6.60
Sevilla9%10.82
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.35
Under 2.526%3.85
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.60
No37%2.68
Double chance1X (Real Madrid or draw)91%1.10
12 (either side)85%1.18
X2 (draw or Sevilla)24%4.10
Handicap -1Real Madrid win by 2+53%1.89
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Real Madrid and Sevilla recent form

Real Madrid 5W 0D 1L
Sevilla 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Madrid at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.25
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sevilla away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Madrid at home only, Sevilla away only.

Injuries & availability

Real Madrid absences

  • Eder Militao hamstring injury
  • F. Mendy hip injury
  • R. Asencio broken leg
  • Rodrygo knee injury
  • Vinicius Junior suspended

Sevilla absences

  • G. Kochorashvili injury
  • I. Romero suspended
  • J. Guridi muscle injury
  • M. Sierra shoulder injury
  • Marcao muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Real Madrid lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 T. Courtois
  2. 17 Marc Cucurella
  3. 4 D. Huijsen
  4. 16 I. Konaté
  5. 8 F. Valverde
  6. 14 A. Tchouaméni
  7. 5 J. Bellingham
  8. 25 Y. Diomande
  9. 15 A. Güler
  10. 9 Endrick
  11. 10 Kylian Mbappé

Bench: Éder Militão, E. Camavinga, T. Alexander-Arnold, A. Lunin, Álvaro Fernández, Carlos Espí, Bernardo Silva, Brahim Díaz, A. Rüdiger, D. Dumfries, Thiago Pitarch, Javier Navarro

Sevilla lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 O. Vlachodimos
  2. 17 G. Suazo
  3. 4 Kike Salas
  4. 5 Andrés Castrín
  5. 2 Juan Iglesias
  6. 24 Y. Fofana
  7. 6 L. Agoumé
  8. 20 Félix Correia
  9. 10 Peque Fernández
  10. 11 R. Vargas
  11. 9 R. Ure

Bench: Julio Díaz del Romo, Alfon González, A. Sangante, Fran González, Manu Bueno, Fábio Cardoso, L. Stassin, C. Ejuke, José Ángel Carmona, N. Guillen, Rafael Romero

Real Madrid vs Sevilla head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Real Madrid 9 · draws 1 · Sevilla 0.

Real MadridDrawsSevilla
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-17Sevilla0-1Real MadridLa Liga
2025-12-20Real Madrid2-0SevillaLa Liga
2025-05-18Sevilla0-2Real MadridLa Liga
2024-12-22Real Madrid4-2SevillaLa Liga
2024-02-25Real Madrid1-0SevillaLa Liga
2023-10-21Sevilla1-1Real MadridLa Liga
2023-05-27Sevilla1-2Real MadridLa Liga
2022-10-22Real Madrid3-1SevillaLa Liga
2022-04-17Sevilla2-3Real MadridLa Liga
2021-11-28Real Madrid2-1SevillaLa Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match