Updated

La Liga · Matchday 9

Malaga vs Real Sociedad

· La Rosaleda, Malaga· Referee Luis Bestard Servera

Full time2 – 5

TipsterGrid prediction was Real Sociedad to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MalagaDrawReal Sociedad

Why this pick: Malaga vs Real Sociedad

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Malaga 8, Real Sociedad 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

MalagaReal Sociedad
0.79 xG per 90 1.34
0.61 npxG per 90 1.24
13.9 PPDA 12.6
3.5 Deep completions per 90 6.9
0.76 xPTS per 90 1.08

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Malaga vs Real Sociedad: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMalagaDrawReal Sociedad
Model45%29%26%
Market30%27%43%
Published34%27%39%
Edge+4%+1%-4%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Malaga vs Real Sociedad odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Sociedad, 30 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.20Now 2.23 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Malaga3.233.17-0.06
Draw3.493.59+0.10
Real Sociedad2.202.23+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Malaga and Real Sociedad expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.53Malaga
1.18Real Sociedad
Total expected goals
2.72
Attack rating (Malaga / Real Sociedad)
0.77 / 0.94
Defence rating (Malaga / Real Sociedad)
1.09 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Malaga vs Real Sociedad score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.4% 4.9% 4.3% 1.7% 0.6% 1 7.5% 14.0% 6.9% 2.7% 1.0% 2 7.9% 9.4% 5.6% 2.2% 0.8% 3 4.3% 5.0% 3.0% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 2.5% 2.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Malaga goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Malaga vs Real Sociedad goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Malaga vs Real Sociedad

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Malaga34%2.95
Draw27%3.65
Real Sociedad39%2.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.89
Under 2.547%2.12
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.73
No42%2.37
Double chance1X (Malaga or draw)61%1.63
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Real Sociedad)66%1.51
Handicap -1Real Sociedad win by 2+11%8.81
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Malaga and Real Sociedad recent form

Malaga 0W 3D 3L
Real Sociedad 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Malaga at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Real Sociedad away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Malaga at home only, Real Sociedad away only.

Injuries & availability

Malaga absences

  • A. Ochoa knee injury
  • D. Murillo knee injury
  • J. Cruz injury
  • J. Lobete knee injury
  • M. Diarra calf injury

Real Sociedad absences

  • A. Odriozola knee injury
  • L. Beitia ankle injury
  • P. Marin suspended

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Malaga lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Alfonso Herrero
  2. 12 José Salinas
  3. 15 Ángel Recio
  4. 20 Fernando Calero
  5. 31 Rafita
  6. 18 Pablo Martínez
  7. 8 Carlos Dotor
  8. 23 Izan Merino
  9. 10 David Larrubia
  10. 9 Chupe
  11. 21 Adrián Niño Heredia

Bench: J. Cajuste, Puga, Einar Galilea, Álex Pastor, Ramón Enríquez, H. Abaida, Joaquín Muñoz, Carlos López, Rafa Rodríguez, Eneko Jauregi, Dani Lorenzo, Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh

Real Sociedad lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Álex Remiro
  2. 3 Aihen Muñoz
  3. 19 M. Sarr
  4. 6 Jon Martín
  5. 22 Héctor Fort
  6. 7 Barrenetxea
  7. 18 Carlos Soler
  8. 4 Jon Gorrotxategi
  9. 14 T. Kubo
  10. 9 O. Óskarsson
  11. 10 Mikel Oyarzabal

Bench: Zubeldia, Beñat Turrientes, Gonçalo Guedes, J. Ochieng, Unai Marrero, Jon Pacheco, Sergio Gómez, A. Zakharyan, L. Sučić, Gorka Carrera, A. Lebarbier, Alex Garcia

Malaga vs Real Sociedad head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Malaga 4 · draws 3 · Real Sociedad 3.

MalagaDrawsReal Sociedad
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-01-07Malaga0-1Real SociedadCopa del Rey
2018-04-22Malaga2-0Real SociedadLa Liga
2017-12-10Real Sociedad0-2MalagaLa Liga
2017-05-14Real Sociedad2-2MalagaLa Liga
2017-01-16Malaga0-2Real SociedadLa Liga
2016-02-27Real Sociedad1-1MalagaLa Liga
2015-10-03Malaga3-1Real SociedadLa Liga
2015-04-04Malaga1-1Real SociedadLa Liga
2014-11-01Real Sociedad0-1MalagaLa Liga
2014-02-17Malaga0-1Real SociedadLa Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match