Updated

La Liga · Matchday 9

Osasuna vs Racing Santander

· Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona· Referee Juan Martinez Munuera

Full time2 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Osasuna to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
OsasunaDrawRacing Santander

Why this pick: Osasuna vs Racing Santander

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Osasuna 10, Racing Santander 8). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

OsasunaRacing Santander
1.26 xG per 90 1.40
1.04 npxG per 90 1.22
11.3 PPDA 11.8
4.3 Deep completions per 90 6.6
1.35 xPTS per 90 1.14

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Osasuna vs Racing Santander: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOsasunaDrawRacing Santander
Model47%24%29%
Market48%26%26%
Published48%25%27%
Edge0%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.69.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Osasuna vs Racing Santander odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Osasuna, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.90Now 2.00 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Osasuna1.902.00+0.10
Draw3.413.77+0.36
Racing Santander4.303.66-0.64

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Osasuna and Racing Santander expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.04Osasuna
1.69Racing Santander
Total expected goals
3.73
Attack rating (Osasuna / Racing Santander)
0.95 / 1.18
Defence rating (Osasuna / Racing Santander)
1.23 / 1.35

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Osasuna vs Racing Santander score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.7% 2.1% 3.1% 1.8% 1.1% 1 3.1% 9.4% 6.6% 3.8% 2.3% 2 4.9% 8.4% 7.1% 4.0% 2.5% 3 3.5% 6.0% 5.1% 2.9% 1.8% 4+ 3.1% 5.3% 4.5% 2.5% 1.6%

Rows: Osasuna goals. Columns: Racing Santander goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Osasuna vs Racing Santander goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 53%
Both teams to score
74%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Osasuna vs Racing Santander

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Osasuna48%2.09
Draw25%3.99
Racing Santander27%3.69
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.36
Under 2.526%3.80
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.36
No26%3.79
Double chance1X (Osasuna or draw)73%1.37
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Racing Santander)52%1.92
Handicap -1Osasuna win by 2+28%3.52
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Osasuna and Racing Santander recent form

Osasuna 1W 1D 4L
Racing Santander 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Osasuna at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Racing Santander away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Osasuna at home only, Racing Santander away only.

Injuries & availability

Osasuna absences

  • A. Bonel inactive
  • A. Oroz injury
  • J. Herrando muscle injury
  • R. Del Castillo muscle injury

Racing Santander absences

  • S. Eriksson shoulder injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Osasuna lineup

  1. 17 A. Budimir
  2. 23 Abel Bretones
  3. 13 Aitor Fernández
  4. 24 Catena
  5. 22 F. Boyomo
  6. 8 Iker Muñoz
  7. 21 Jonathan Dubasin
  8. 16 Moi Gómez
  9. 7 Moncayola
  10. 14 Rubén García
  11. 19 V. Rosier

Bench: Sergio Herrera, Lucas Torró, Raúl García, Kike Barja, Diego Rico, Raul Moro, Mauro Echegoyen, Íñigo Arguibide, Asier Osambela, Rafa Fernández, U. Santos, R. Yeboah

Racing Santander lineup

  1. 8 André Almeida
  2. 23 Iván Martín
  3. 10 Iñigo Vicente
  4. 24 J. Belocian
  5. 17 Jorge Salinas
  6. 13 Julen Agirrezabala
  7. 18 M. Prati
  8. 21 M. Zabiri
  9. 5 Pablo Ramón
  10. 20 Sergio Canales
  11. 2 Álvaro Mantilla

Bench: Aarón Martín, Íñigo Sainz-Maza, G. Guliashvili, Juan Carlos Arana, Andrés Martín, Asier Villalibre, M. Gueye, Pablo García, Facundo González, Iker Luque, Pedro Felipe

Osasuna vs Racing Santander head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Osasuna 3 · draws 0 · Racing Santander 3.

OsasunaDrawsRacing Santander
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-24Osasuna2-0Racing SantanderFriendlies Clubs
2025-08-02Osasuna0-1Racing SantanderFriendlies Clubs
2012-05-13Racing Santander2-4OsasunaLa Liga
2012-01-15Osasuna0-2Racing SantanderLa Liga
2011-03-13Osasuna3-1Racing SantanderLa Liga
2010-10-31Racing Santander4-1OsasunaLa Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match