Updated

La Liga · Matchday 3

Racing Santander vs Elche

· El Sardinero, Santander· Referee Carlos Muniz Munoz, Spain

Full time3 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Racing Santander to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Racing SantanderDrawElche

Why this pick: Racing Santander vs Elche

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Racing Santander 2, Elche 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Racing SantanderElche
1.57 xG per 90 1.33
0.82 npxG per 90 1.18
7.8 PPDA 8.6
7.0 Deep completions per 90 4.4
1.90 xPTS per 90 1.28

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Racing Santander vs Elche: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRacing SantanderDrawElche
Model69%18%12%
Market45%27%28%
Published51%25%24%
Edge+6%-2%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.15.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Racing Santander below our published probability: +6.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Racing Santander vs Elche odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Racing Santander, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-23.

Opened 2.50Now 2.12 -0.38
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Racing Santander2.502.12-0.38
Draw3.303.47+0.17
Elche2.753.45+0.70

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Racing Santander and Elche expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.60Racing Santander
1.15Elche
Total expected goals
3.75
Attack rating (Racing Santander / Elche)
1.45 / 0.95
Defence rating (Racing Santander / Elche)
1.07 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Racing Santander vs Elche score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.4% 1.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 1 4.4% 7.8% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5% 2 7.7% 8.9% 5.1% 1.9% 0.7% 3 7.0% 8.1% 4.6% 1.8% 0.6% 4+ 9.3% 10.7% 6.1% 2.3% 0.9%

Rows: Racing Santander goals. Columns: Elche goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Racing Santander vs Elche goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 54%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Racing Santander vs Elche

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Racing Santander51%1.96
Draw25%3.97
Elche24%4.21
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.35
Under 2.526%3.89
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.54
No35%2.86
Double chance1X (Racing Santander or draw)76%1.31
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Elche)49%2.04
Handicap -1Racing Santander win by 2+50%1.99
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Racing Santander and Elche recent form

Racing Santander 3W 2D 1L
Elche 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Racing Santander at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Elche away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Racing Santander at home only, Elche away only.

Injuries & availability

Racing Santander absences

  • Pedro Felipe hamstring injury

Elche absences

  • A. Boayar muscle injury
  • Y. Santiago knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Racing Santander vs Elche head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Racing Santander 2 · draws 1 · Elche 3.

Racing SantanderDrawsElche
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-03-02Racing Santander2-0ElcheSegunda División
2024-12-19Elche3-0Racing SantanderSegunda División
2024-05-04Racing Santander3-1ElcheSegunda División
2023-09-02Elche1-1Racing SantanderSegunda División
2020-07-04Racing Santander1-2ElcheSegunda División
2019-12-01Elche2-0Racing SantanderSegunda División

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Before and after this match