Updated

La Liga · Matchday 3

Levante vs Real Betis

· Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia· Referee Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain

Full time5 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Real Betis to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LevanteDrawReal Betis

Why this pick: Levante vs Real Betis

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Levante 10, Real Betis 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LevanteReal Betis
1.81 xG per 90 1.38
1.58 npxG per 90 1.31
13.0 PPDA 14.8
5.4 Deep completions per 90 6.5
1.76 xPTS per 90 1.28

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Levante vs Real Betis: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLevanteDrawReal Betis
Model56%24%20%
Market29%28%43%
Published35%27%37%
Edge+7%-1%-6%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Levante vs Real Betis odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Betis, 16 snapshots since 2026-08-21.

Opened 2.60Now 2.20 -0.40
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Levante2.653.35+0.70
Draw3.453.40-0.05
Real Betis2.602.20-0.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Levante and Real Betis expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.05Levante
1.23Real Betis
Total expected goals
3.28
Attack rating (Levante / Real Betis)
1.19 / 1.09
Defence rating (Levante / Real Betis)
1.01 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Levante vs Real Betis score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 2.4% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 1 5.5% 10.8% 5.6% 2.3% 0.9% 2 7.8% 9.7% 6.0% 2.5% 1.0% 3 5.6% 6.9% 4.3% 1.8% 0.7% 4+ 5.0% 6.1% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6%

Rows: Levante goals. Columns: Real Betis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Levante vs Real Betis goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Levante vs Real Betis

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Levante35%2.82
Draw27%3.69
Real Betis37%2.67
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.52
Under 2.534%2.91
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.55
No36%2.81
Double chance1X (Levante or draw)63%1.60
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Real Betis)65%1.55
Handicap -1Real Betis win by 2+8%11.79
Push (exactly one goal)11%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Levante and Real Betis recent form

Levante 3W 1D 2L
Real Betis 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Betis away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Levante at home only, Real Betis away only.

Injuries & availability

Levante absences

  • A. Primo shoulder injury

Real Betis absences

  • A. Ezzalzouli knee injury
  • A. Ruibal knee injury
  • D. Conde shoulder injury
  • G. Lo Celso muscle injury
  • G. Petit muscle injury
  • J. Morante injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Levante vs Real Betis head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Levante 4 · draws 1 · Real Betis 5.

LevanteDrawsReal Betis
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-23Real Betis2-1LevanteLa Liga
2025-09-14Levante2-2Real BetisLa Liga
2022-02-13Levante2-4Real BetisLa Liga
2021-11-28Real Betis3-1LevanteLa Liga
2021-03-19Real Betis2-0LevanteLa Liga
2020-12-29Levante4-3Real BetisLa Liga
2020-06-28Levante4-2Real BetisLa Liga
2019-09-24Real Betis3-1LevanteLa Liga
2019-04-24Levante4-0Real BetisLa Liga
2018-08-17Real Betis0-3LevanteLa Liga

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Before and after this match