Updated

La Liga · Matchday 3

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid

· Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Seville· Referee Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain

Full time1 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Atletico Madrid to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SevillaDrawAtletico Madrid

Why this pick: Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sevilla 10, Atletico Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SevillaAtletico Madrid
1.07 xG per 90 1.70
0.85 npxG per 90 1.62
11.0 PPDA 11.6
5.3 Deep completions per 90 7.8
1.25 xPTS per 90 1.42

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSevillaDrawAtletico Madrid
Model45%29%26%
Market27%28%45%
Published31%28%40%
Edge+5%0%-5%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico Madrid, 16 snapshots since 2026-08-21.

Opened 2.25Now 2.10 -0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sevilla3.003.55+0.55
Draw3.353.35+0.00
Atletico Madrid2.252.10-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sevilla and Atletico Madrid expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.60Sevilla
1.24Atletico Madrid
Total expected goals
2.83
Attack rating (Sevilla / Atletico Madrid)
0.83 / 1.10
Defence rating (Sevilla / Atletico Madrid)
1.00 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 4.5% 4.1% 1.7% 0.7% 1 6.9% 13.5% 6.9% 2.9% 1.2% 2 7.6% 9.4% 5.8% 2.4% 1.0% 3 4.3% 5.3% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 4+ 2.6% 3.2% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Sevilla goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sevilla31%3.19
Draw28%3.53
Atletico Madrid40%2.48
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.79
Under 2.544%2.27
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.66
No40%2.51
Double chance1X (Sevilla or draw)60%1.68
12 (either side)72%1.40
X2 (draw or Atletico Madrid)69%1.46
Handicap -1Atletico Madrid win by 2+12%8.58
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sevilla and Atletico Madrid recent form

Sevilla 4W 0D 2L
Atletico Madrid 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sevilla at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Sevilla at home only, Atletico Madrid away only.

Injuries & availability

Sevilla absences

  • A. Gonzalez muscle injury
  • Marcao foot injury
  • R. Vargas transfer negotiations

Atletico Madrid absences

  • A. Sorloth muscle injury
  • J. Alvarez illness
  • O. Vargas coach's decision
  • R. Le Normand suspended
  • T. Lemar coach's decision

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Sevilla 2 · draws 0 · Atletico Madrid 4.

SevillaDrawsAtletico Madrid
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11Sevilla2-1Atletico MadridLa Liga
2025-11-01Atletico Madrid3-0SevillaLa Liga
2025-04-06Sevilla1-2Atletico MadridLa Liga
2024-12-08Atletico Madrid4-3SevillaLa Liga
2024-02-11Sevilla1-0Atletico MadridLa Liga
2023-12-23Atletico Madrid1-0SevillaLa Liga

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Before and after this match