Updated

La Liga · Matchday 2

Getafe vs Racing Santander

· Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe· Referee Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Getafe to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GetafeDrawRacing Santander

Why this pick: Getafe vs Racing Santander

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Getafe 10, Racing Santander 1). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

GetafeRacing Santander
0.83 xG per 90 1.96
0.75 npxG per 90 1.22
10.8 PPDA 10.1
2.9 Deep completions per 90 8.0
1.09 xPTS per 90 2.29

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Getafe vs Racing Santander: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGetafeDrawRacing Santander
Model33%26%40%
Market42%32%26%
Published40%30%29%
Edge-2%-1%+4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Getafe vs Racing Santander odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Getafe, 8 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 2.17Now 2.25 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Getafe2.172.25+0.08
Draw2.903.01+0.11
Racing Santander4.003.70-0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Getafe and Racing Santander expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Getafe
1.80Racing Santander
Total expected goals
3.36
Attack rating (Getafe / Racing Santander)
0.87 / 1.64
Defence rating (Getafe / Racing Santander)
0.98 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Getafe vs Racing Santander score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.1% 3.9% 5.3% 3.2% 2.1% 1 3.4% 11.4% 8.6% 5.2% 3.5% 2 4.3% 7.7% 7.0% 4.2% 2.8% 3 2.3% 4.2% 3.8% 2.3% 1.5% 4+ 1.4% 2.5% 2.2% 1.3% 0.9%

Rows: Getafe goals. Columns: Racing Santander goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Getafe vs Racing Santander goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Getafe vs Racing Santander

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Getafe40%2.49
Draw30%3.29
Racing Santander29%3.39
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.50
Under 2.533%3.00
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.45
No31%3.24
Double chance1X (Getafe or draw)71%1.42
12 (either side)70%1.44
X2 (draw or Racing Santander)60%1.67
Handicap -1Getafe win by 2+17%5.78
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Getafe and Racing Santander recent form

Getafe 3W 1D 2L
Racing Santander 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Before and after this match