Why this pick: Real Sociedad vs Espanyol
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Sociedad 10, Espanyol 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Real Sociedad vs Espanyol: model vs market
| Source | Real Sociedad | Draw | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 51% | 26% | 24% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.45.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Real Sociedad vs Espanyol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Sociedad, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 1.80 | 1.87 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.65 | +0.05 |
| Espanyol | 4.33 | 4.00 | -0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Sociedad and Espanyol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Real Sociedad / Espanyol)
- 1.00 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Real Sociedad / Espanyol)
- 1.40 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Sociedad vs Espanyol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Sociedad goals. Columns: Espanyol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Sociedad vs Espanyol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Sociedad vs Espanyol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Sociedad | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Espanyol | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Sociedad or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Espanyol) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Sociedad win by 2+ | 26% | 3.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Real Sociedad and Espanyol recent form
Real Sociedad
0W 3D 3L
Espanyol
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Real Sociedad absences
-
A. Odriozola
knee injury
-
J. Gorrotxategi
groin injury
-
P. Marin
injury
Espanyol absences
-
J. Puado
knee injury
-
K. Garcia
hamstring injury
-
L. Cabrera
suspended
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Real Sociedad vs Espanyol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Real Sociedad 7 · draws 2 · Espanyol 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Espanyol | 1-1 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 2025-08-24 | Real Sociedad | 2-2 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2025-02-09 | Real Sociedad | 2-1 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2024-08-24 | Espanyol | 0-1 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 2023-02-13 | Espanyol | 2-3 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 2022-09-18 | Real Sociedad | 2-1 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2022-04-04 | Real Sociedad | 1-0 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2021-11-28 | Espanyol | 1-0 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 2020-07-02 | Real Sociedad | 2-1 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2020-01-22 | Real Sociedad | 2-0 | Espanyol | Copa del Rey |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Racing Santander vs Elche — team news & stats 2026-08-28
- Alaves vs Villarreal 2026-08-28
- Levante v Real Betis — match page 2026-08-29
- Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid 2026-08-29
- Real Madrid v Malaga — match page 2026-08-30
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia — team news & stats 2026-08-30
- Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-08-30
- Osasuna v Getafe — match page 2026-08-31
Before and after this match
- Real Sociedad, previous: Real Madrid v Real Sociedad analysis
- Real Sociedad, next: Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo: odds and pick
- Espanyol, previous: Espanyol vs Real Madrid: odds and pick
- Espanyol, next: Espanyol vs Sevilla: odds and pick