Why this pick: Alaves vs Villarreal
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Alaves 10, Villarreal 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Alaves vs Villarreal: model vs market
| Source | Alaves | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Published | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Edge | +6% | 0% | -5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Alaves vs Villarreal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Villarreal, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 2.70 | 3.10 | +0.40 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Villarreal | 2.55 | 2.26 | -0.29 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alaves and Villarreal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Alaves / Villarreal)
- 1.14 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Alaves / Villarreal)
- 0.84 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alaves vs Villarreal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alaves goals. Columns: Villarreal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alaves vs Villarreal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alaves vs Villarreal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 36% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Villarreal | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alaves or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Villarreal) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Villarreal win by 2+ | 9% | 10.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Alaves and Villarreal recent form
Alaves
3W 2D 1L
Villarreal
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alaves at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Villarreal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Alaves at home only, Villarreal away only.
Injuries & availability
Alaves absences
-
F. Garces
suspended
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Alaves vs Villarreal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Alaves 3 · draws 3 · Villarreal 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Alaves | 1-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2026-01-10 | Villarreal | 3-1 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2025-03-08 | Alaves | 1-0 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2024-11-09 | Villarreal | 3-0 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2024-02-10 | Alaves | 1-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2023-10-22 | Villarreal | 1-1 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2022-04-30 | Alaves | 2-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2021-12-21 | Villarreal | 5-2 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2021-04-21 | Alaves | 2-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2020-09-30 | Villarreal | 3-1 | Alaves | La Liga |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Racing Santander vs Elche — team news & stats 2026-08-28
- Levante v Real Betis — match page 2026-08-29
- Real Sociedad vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-08-29
- Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid 2026-08-29
- Real Madrid v Malaga — match page 2026-08-30
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia — team news & stats 2026-08-30
- Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-08-30
- Osasuna v Getafe — match page 2026-08-31
Before and after this match
- Alaves, previous: Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves: odds and pick
- Alaves, next: Alaves v Osasuna analysis
- Villarreal, previous: Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal prediction
- Villarreal, next: Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna: odds and pick