Why this pick: Real Betis vs Real Sociedad
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Betis 10, Real Sociedad 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Real Betis vs Real Sociedad: model vs market
| Source | Real Betis | Draw | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Market | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Published | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Real Betis below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Real Betis vs Real Sociedad odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Betis, 3 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | 2.10 | 2.05 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.42 | +0.02 |
| Real Sociedad | 3.60 | 3.62 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Betis and Real Sociedad expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (Real Betis / Real Sociedad)
- 1.10 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Real Betis / Real Sociedad)
- 1.12 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Betis vs Real Sociedad score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Betis goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Betis vs Real Sociedad goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Betis vs Real Sociedad
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Betis | 50% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Real Sociedad | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Betis or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Sociedad) | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Betis win by 2+ | 38% | 2.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Real Betis and Real Sociedad recent form
Real Betis
3W 2D 1L
Real Sociedad
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Real Betis vs Real Sociedad head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Real Betis 2 · draws 2 · Real Sociedad 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Real Sociedad | 2-2 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2025-09-19 | Real Betis | 3-1 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 2025-02-16 | Real Betis | 3-0 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 2024-12-01 | Real Sociedad | 2-0 | Real Betis | La Liga |
| 2024-05-19 | Real Betis | 0-2 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 2023-12-17 | Real Sociedad | 0-0 | Real Betis | La Liga |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves 2026-08-20
- Athletic Club vs Sevilla 2026-08-22
- Valencia vs Celta Vigo 2026-08-22
- Espanyol v Real Madrid — match page 2026-08-22
- Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal — team news & stats 2026-08-23
- Getafe vs Racing Santander 2026-08-23
- Elche v Barcelona — match page 2026-08-23
- Osasuna vs Levante — team news & stats 2026-08-24
Before and after this match
- Real Betis, previous: Real Betis vs Levante prediction
- Real Betis, next: Valencia – Real Betis, 2026-08-25
- Real Sociedad, previous: Espanyol v Real Sociedad analysis
- Real Sociedad, next: Real Madrid v Real Sociedad analysis