Why this pick: Espanyol vs Real Madrid
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Espanyol 10, Real Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Espanyol vs Real Madrid: model vs market
| Source | Espanyol | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 29% | 33% |
| Market | 13% | 20% | 66% |
| Published | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| Edge | +6% | +2% | -8% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Espanyol vs Real Madrid odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Madrid, 6 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 7.40 | 7.10 | -0.30 |
| Draw | 4.42 | 4.70 | +0.28 |
| Real Madrid | 1.44 | 1.44 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Espanyol and Real Madrid expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.95
- Attack rating (Espanyol / Real Madrid)
- 0.94 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Espanyol / Real Madrid)
- 1.10 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Espanyol vs Real Madrid score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Espanyol goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Espanyol vs Real Madrid goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Espanyol vs Real Madrid
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Espanyol | 20% | 5.07 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.47 | |
| Real Madrid | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Espanyol or draw) | 42% | 2.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Madrid) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win by 2+ | 16% | 6.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Espanyol and Real Madrid recent form
Espanyol
3W 1D 2L
Real Madrid
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Espanyol at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Espanyol at home only, Real Madrid away only.
Espanyol vs Real Madrid head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Espanyol 1 · draws 0 · Real Madrid 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Espanyol | 0-2 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2025-09-20 | Real Madrid | 2-0 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2025-02-01 | Espanyol | 1-0 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2024-09-21 | Real Madrid | 4-1 | Espanyol | La Liga |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves 2026-08-20
- Real Betis v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-08-21
- Athletic Club vs Sevilla 2026-08-22
- Valencia vs Celta Vigo 2026-08-22
- Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal — team news & stats 2026-08-23
- Getafe vs Racing Santander 2026-08-23
- Elche v Barcelona — match page 2026-08-23
- Osasuna vs Levante — team news & stats 2026-08-24
Before and after this match
- Espanyol, previous: Espanyol vs Levante prediction
- Espanyol, next: Real Sociedad vs Espanyol prediction
- Real Madrid, previous: Real Madrid vs Athletic Club: odds and pick
- Real Madrid, next: Real Madrid v Real Sociedad analysis