Why this pick: Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atletico Madrid 10, Villarreal 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Market | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Published | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Madrid, 7 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.88 | 1.83 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.83 | +0.23 |
| Villarreal | 4.00 | 4.10 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Madrid and Villarreal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Atletico Madrid / Villarreal)
- 1.16 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Atletico Madrid / Villarreal)
- 1.10 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Villarreal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 52% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Villarreal | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Madrid or draw) | 77% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Villarreal) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Madrid win by 2+ | 32% | 3.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Atletico Madrid and Villarreal recent form
Atletico Madrid
3W 0D 3L
Villarreal
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Madrid at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Villarreal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Madrid at home only, Villarreal away only.
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Atletico Madrid 3 · draws 2 · Villarreal 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Villarreal | 5-1 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2025-09-13 | Atletico Madrid | 2-0 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2025-01-25 | Atletico Madrid | 1-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2024-08-19 | Villarreal | 2-2 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2024-04-01 | Villarreal | 1-2 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2023-11-12 | Atletico Madrid | 3-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves 2026-08-20
- Real Betis v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-08-21
- Athletic Club vs Sevilla 2026-08-22
- Valencia vs Celta Vigo 2026-08-22
- Espanyol v Real Madrid — match page 2026-08-22
- Getafe vs Racing Santander 2026-08-23
- Elche v Barcelona — match page 2026-08-23
- Osasuna vs Levante — team news & stats 2026-08-24
Before and after this match
- Atletico Madrid, previous: Atletico Madrid v Malaga analysis
- Atletico Madrid, next: Sevilla – Atletico Madrid, 2026-08-29
- Villarreal, previous: Racing Santander vs Villarreal: odds and pick
- Villarreal, next: Alaves v Villarreal analysis