Why this pick: Villarreal vs Espanyol
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Villarreal 10, Espanyol 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Villarreal vs Espanyol: model vs market
| Source | Villarreal | Draw | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 82% | 11% | 7% |
| Market | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Published | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.58 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Villarreal below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Villarreal vs Espanyol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Villarreal, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1.56 | 1.43 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 4.44 | 4.85 | +0.41 |
| Espanyol | 5.56 | 6.50 | +0.94 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Villarreal and Espanyol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.78
- Attack rating (Villarreal / Espanyol)
- 1.76 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Villarreal / Espanyol)
- 1.05 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Villarreal vs Espanyol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Villarreal goals. Columns: Espanyol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Villarreal vs Espanyol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Villarreal vs Espanyol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 70% | 1.43 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.76 | |
| Espanyol | 13% | 7.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87% | 1.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 13% | 7.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Villarreal or draw) | 87% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or Espanyol) | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Villarreal win by 2+ | 68% | 1.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Villarreal and Espanyol recent form
Villarreal
3W 1D 2L
Espanyol
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Villarreal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Espanyol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Villarreal at home only, Espanyol away only.
Injuries & availability
Villarreal absences
-
C. Romero
injury
- I. Akhomach muscle injury
- N. Saliba injury
-
P. Gueye
suspended
Espanyol absences
-
Jofre
groin injury
-
K. Garcia
hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Villarreal vs Espanyol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Villarreal 8 · draws 1 · Espanyol 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Villarreal | 4-1 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2025-11-08 | Espanyol | 0-2 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2025-04-27 | Villarreal | 1-0 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2024-09-26 | Espanyol | 1-2 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2023-04-27 | Villarreal | 4-2 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2022-11-09 | Espanyol | 0-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2022-02-27 | Villarreal | 5-1 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2021-08-21 | Espanyol | 0-0 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2020-01-19 | Villarreal | 1-2 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2019-10-20 | Espanyol | 0-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Levante v Atletico Madrid — match page 2026-10-31
- Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo 2026-10-31
- Real Betis vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Barcelona vs Alaves — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna 2026-11-01
- Elche v Valencia — match page 2026-11-01
- Getafe vs Sevilla 2026-11-01
- Racing Santander vs Real Madrid — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Villarreal, previous: Valencia vs Villarreal prediction
- Espanyol, previous: Racing Santander vs Espanyol prediction