Updated

La Liga · Matchday 10

Valencia vs Villarreal

· Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia· Referee Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Villarreal to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ValenciaDrawVillarreal

Why this pick: Valencia vs Villarreal

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Valencia 10, Villarreal 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

ValenciaVillarreal
1.15 xG per 90 2.59
1.15 npxG per 90 2.48
16.4 PPDA 10.3
4.2 Deep completions per 90 13.6
1.18 xPTS per 90 1.90

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Valencia vs Villarreal: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceValenciaDrawVillarreal
Model36%24%41%
Market27%27%46%
Published30%26%45%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Valencia vs Villarreal odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Villarreal, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 2.00Now 2.09 +0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Valencia3.203.49+0.29
Draw3.603.60+0.00
Villarreal2.002.09+0.09

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Valencia and Villarreal expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.82Valencia
2.03Villarreal
Total expected goals
3.85
Attack rating (Valencia / Villarreal)
0.95 / 1.60
Defence rating (Valencia / Villarreal)
1.09 / 1.20

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Valencia vs Villarreal score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.5% 2.4% 4.0% 2.7% 2.2% 1 2.2% 9.0% 7.7% 5.2% 4.2% 2 3.5% 7.2% 7.3% 5.0% 4.0% 3 2.3% 4.6% 4.6% 3.1% 2.6% 4+ 1.7% 3.4% 3.4% 2.3% 1.9%

Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Villarreal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Valencia vs Villarreal goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
76%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Valencia vs Villarreal

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Valencia30%3.39
Draw26%3.86
Villarreal45%2.25
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.05
Both teams to scoreYes76%1.32
No24%4.09
Double chance1X (Valencia or draw)55%1.80
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Villarreal)70%1.42
Handicap -1Villarreal win by 2+23%4.26
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Valencia and Villarreal recent form

Valencia 1W 2D 3L
Villarreal 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Valencia at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.40
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.4 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.

Villarreal away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 69% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Valencia at home only, Villarreal away only.

Injuries & availability

Valencia absences

  • D. Foulquier knee injury
  • D. Lopez knee injury
  • J. Copete knee injury
  • S. Canos knee injury
  • U. Sadiq muscle injury

Villarreal absences

  • C. Romero injury
  • N. Pepe eye injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Valencia lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 S. Dimitrievski
  2. 14 José Gayà
  3. 12 J. de Haas
  4. 5 César Tárrega
  5. 24 Pablo Maffeo
  6. 11 Luis Rioja
  7. 18 Pepelu
  8. 2 G. Rodríguez
  9. 27 David Otorbi
  10. 7 A. Danjuma
  11. 8 Javi Guerra

Bench: M. Diakhaby, Hugo Duro, H. Elliott, A. Dieng, Dani Raba, Jesús Vázquez, Arnau Martínez, F. Ugrinic, K. van Oevelen, Aaron Mayol, Aimar Blázquez, R. Sato

Villarreal lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 25 P. Gulácsi
  2. 3 A. Freeman
  3. 12 Renato Veiga
  4. 8 J. Foyth
  5. 15 S. Mouriño
  6. 17 T. Buchanan
  7. 18 P. Gueye
  8. 16 C. Macia
  9. 11 Ilias Akhomach
  10. 22 Ayoze Pérez
  11. 7 Gerard Moreno

Bench: Luíz Júnior, Logan Costa, A. Diatta, Pau Navarro, G. Mikautadze, Alberto Moleiro, Rubén Gómez, Santi Comesaña, T. Oluwaseyi, Sergi Cardona, N. El Jmili

Valencia vs Villarreal head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Valencia 2 · draws 3 · Villarreal 5.

ValenciaDrawsVillarreal
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-22Villarreal2-1ValenciaLa Liga
2025-10-25Valencia0-2VillarrealLa Liga
2025-02-15Villarreal1-1ValenciaLa Liga
2024-08-31Valencia1-1VillarrealLa Liga
2024-03-17Villarreal1-0ValenciaLa Liga
2024-01-02Valencia3-1VillarrealLa Liga
2023-05-03Valencia1-1VillarrealLa Liga
2022-12-31Villarreal2-1ValenciaLa Liga
2022-04-19Villarreal2-0ValenciaLa Liga
2021-10-30Valencia2-0VillarrealLa Liga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match