Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 6

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans

· Parc des Princes, Paris· Referee Mathieu Vernice

Full time3 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Paris Saint Germain to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Paris Saint GermainDrawLe Mans

Why this pick: Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Paris Saint Germain 10, Le Mans 5). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Paris Saint GermainLe Mans
1.98 xG per 90 1.56
1.98 npxG per 90 1.41
12.0 PPDA 13.1
10.9 Deep completions per 90 4.6
1.68 xPTS per 90 1.04

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceParis Saint GermainDrawLe Mans
Model52%21%26%
Market85%10%5%
Published77%13%10%
Edge-8%+3%+5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.54.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Paris Saint Germain, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-17.

Opened 1.08Now 1.12 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Paris Saint Germain1.081.12+0.04
Draw12.369.90-2.46
Le Mans22.0018.88-3.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.28Paris Saint Germain
1.54Le Mans
Total expected goals
3.82
Attack rating (Paris Saint Germain / Le Mans)
1.61 / 1.22
Defence rating (Paris Saint Germain / Le Mans)
1.02 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.7% 3.6% 2.9% 1.5% 0.8% 1 5.1% 8.4% 6.3% 3.3% 1.8% 2 5.7% 8.9% 6.8% 3.5% 1.9% 3 4.1% 6.4% 4.9% 2.5% 1.4% 4+ 3.7% 5.7% 4.4% 2.3% 1.2%

Rows: Paris Saint Germain goals. Columns: Le Mans goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 51%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Paris Saint Germain77%1.30
Draw13%7.98
Le Mans10%9.64
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.43
Under 2.530%3.35
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.46
No32%3.17
Double chance1X (Paris Saint Germain or draw)90%1.12
12 (either side)87%1.14
X2 (draw or Le Mans)23%4.36
Handicap -1Paris Saint Germain win by 2+31%3.20
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans recent form

Paris Saint Germain 3W 2D 1L
Le Mans 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Paris Saint Germain at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Le Mans away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain at home only, Le Mans away only.

Injuries & availability

Paris Saint Germain absences

  • A. Longoni injury
  • N. Mendes rest
  • O. Dembele rest
  • S. Mayulu groin injury

Le Mans absences

  • A. Bourabaa ankle injury
  • D. Sidibe yellow cards
  • E. Colas injury
  • E. Quarshie coach's decision
  • M. Rossignol injury
  • T. Eyoum coach's decision

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Paris Saint Germain lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 39 M. Safonov
  2. 12 L. Digne
  3. 21 L. Hernández
  4. 6 I. Zabarnyi
  5. 2 A. Hakimi
  6. 27 Pedro Fernández
  7. 4 Beraldo
  8. 87 João Neves
  9. 22 M. Godts
  10. 9 Ferran Torres
  11. 11 M. Akliouche

Bench: Marquinhos, K. Kvaratskhelia, Fabián Ruiz, D. Doué, Vitinha, L. Chevalier, W. Zaïre-Emery, Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha, W. Pacho

Le Mans lineup · 3-1-4-2

  1. 98 N. Kocik
  2. 5 H. Voyer
  3. 17 S. Yohou
  4. 15 N. Boissé
  5. 8 A. Lauray
  6. 22 L. Calodat
  7. 10 J. Vercruysse
  8. 29 L. Bretelle
  9. 26 R. Bamba
  10. 14 L. Mafouta
  11. 13 H. Diallo

Bench: E. Hatfout, B. Brahimi, A. Rabillard, Raúl Torrente, L. Buadés, W. Harhouz, D. Traoré, D. Guèye, Y. Larouci

Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Paris Saint Germain 3 · draws 0 · Le Mans 0.

Paris Saint GermainDrawsLe Mans
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-02-04Le Mans0-2Paris Saint GermainCoupe de France
2021-07-14Paris Saint Germain4-0Le MansFriendlies Clubs
2019-12-18Le Mans1-4Paris Saint GermainCoupe de la Ligue

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match