Why this pick: Nice vs Strasbourg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nice 10, Strasbourg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Nice vs Strasbourg: model vs market
| Source | Nice | Draw | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Published | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Nice vs Strasbourg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nice, 47 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 2.22 | 2.33 | +0.11 |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.66 | +0.10 |
| Strasbourg | 3.14 | 2.88 | -0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nice and Strasbourg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.04
- Attack rating (Nice / Strasbourg)
- 0.88 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Nice / Strasbourg)
- 1.23 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nice vs Strasbourg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nice goals. Columns: Strasbourg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nice vs Strasbourg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nice vs Strasbourg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nice | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Strasbourg | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nice or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Strasbourg) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nice win by 2+ | 20% | 4.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Nice and Strasbourg recent form
Nice
1W 2D 3L
Strasbourg
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Strasbourg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nice at home only, Strasbourg away only.
Injuries & availability
Nice absences
-
A. Mendy
knee injury
-
L. Abergel
knee injury
-
M. Bombito
leg injury
-
M. Sanson
knee injury
Strasbourg absences
-
I. Doukoure
inactive
-
J. Panichelli
knee injury
-
M. Godo
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Nice lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 23 Y. Diouf
- 35 X. Mandza Tsiendi
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye
- 5 Mohamed Abdelmonem
- 27 N. Nkounkou
- 28 A. Witsel
- 39 D. Coulibaly
- 92 J. Clauss
- 9 M. Amoura
- 7 G. Hein
- 11 E. Wahi
Bench: H. Boudaoui, S. Diop, I. Jansson, A. Seidu, A. Camara, D. Morana, T. Boulhendi, H. Koutoune, E. Pereira
Strasbourg lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 F. Jörgensen
- 36 Oso
- 31 Abdoul Karim Coulibaly
- 4 J. Mitchell
- 16 G. Antwi
- 14 Dário Essugo
- 21 P. Diop
- 23 Diogo Sousa
- 7 S. Amo-Ameyaw
- 40 C. Harder
- 80 Gessime Yassine
Bench: G. Reyna, M. Piekutowski, Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé, L. Høgsberg, Tyrese Noubissie, S. El Mourabet, J. Ortega, Y. Becker
Nice vs Strasbourg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Nice 4 · draws 4 · Strasbourg 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Strasbourg | 0-2 | Nice | Coupe de France |
| 2026-04-04 | Strasbourg | 3-1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Nice | 1-1 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Strasbourg | 2-2 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-11-24 | Nice | 2-1 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-28 | Strasbourg | 1-3 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-09-03 | Nice | 2-0 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-05-13 | Strasbourg | 2-0 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-08-14 | Nice | 1-1 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-02-26 | Strasbourg | 0-0 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Lens vs Lyon 2026-10-09
- Lille v Le Havre — match page 2026-10-10
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans 2026-10-10
- Monaco v Toulouse — match page 2026-10-10
- Lorient vs Paris FC 2026-10-10
- Brest v Angers — match page 2026-10-10
- Rennes vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Estac Troyes vs Marseille — team news & stats 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Nice, previous: Nice – Lille, 2026-09-20
- Nice, next: Lyon vs Nice: odds and pick
- Strasbourg, previous: Paris FC – Strasbourg, 2026-09-19
- Strasbourg, next: Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain prediction