Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 6

Estac Troyes vs Marseille

· Stade de l'Aube, Troyes· Referee Guillaume Paradis

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Marseille to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Estac TroyesDrawMarseille

Why this pick: Estac Troyes vs Marseille

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Estac Troyes 5, Marseille 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Estac TroyesMarseille
1.24 xG per 90 1.98
1.09 npxG per 90 1.81
16.1 PPDA 10.6
7.2 Deep completions per 90 9.4
0.79 xPTS per 90 1.28

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Estac Troyes vs Marseille: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEstac TroyesDrawMarseille
Model53%20%27%
Market28%26%46%
Published34%24%42%
Edge+6%-1%-5%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Estac Troyes vs Marseille odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Marseille, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.93Now 2.06 +0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Estac Troyes3.683.45-0.23
Draw3.813.70-0.11
Marseille1.932.06+0.13

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Estac Troyes and Marseille expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.42Estac Troyes
1.64Marseille
Total expected goals
4.06
Attack rating (Estac Troyes / Marseille)
1.00 / 1.24
Defence rating (Estac Troyes / Marseille)
1.07 / 1.51

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Estac Troyes vs Marseille score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.1% 3.0% 2.6% 1.4% 0.8% 1 4.3% 7.5% 6.0% 3.3% 1.9% 2 5.2% 8.5% 6.9% 3.8% 2.2% 3 4.0% 6.5% 5.3% 2.9% 1.7% 4+ 3.9% 6.4% 5.2% 2.8% 1.7%

Rows: Estac Troyes goals. Columns: Marseille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Estac Troyes vs Marseille goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
73%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Estac Troyes vs Marseille

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Estac Troyes34%2.95
Draw24%4.09
Marseille42%2.40
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.07
Both teams to scoreYes73%1.37
No27%3.68
Double chance1X (Estac Troyes or draw)58%1.71
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Marseille)66%1.51
Handicap -1Marseille win by 2+13%7.74
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Estac Troyes and Marseille recent form

Estac Troyes 1W 1D 4L
Marseille 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Estac Troyes at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

Marseille away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Estac Troyes at home only, Marseille away only.

Injuries & availability

Estac Troyes absences

  • A. Ouzenadji injury
  • I. Boura hip injury
  • Y. Kone injury
  • Y. Titi leg injury

Marseille absences

  • D. Cornelius hip injury
  • G. Kondogbia thigh injury
  • P. Hojbjerg muscle injury
  • T. Weah suspended

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Estac Troyes lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 33 P. Beach
  2. 5 P. Gozzi
  3. 4 M. Diaz
  4. 6 A. Monfray
  5. 2 L. Maronnier
  6. 29 D. Karim
  7. 8 M. Diop
  8. 11 I. Gomis
  9. 17 A. Mille
  10. 7 K. Diawara
  11. 9 J. Le Douaron

Bench: M. Ifnaoui, R. Ripart, H. Picard, T. Nkada, A. Phliponeau, Noah Donkor, C. Batola, H. Konaté

Marseille lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 J. de Lange
  2. 33 Emerson
  3. 21 N. Aguerd
  4. 4 C. Egan-Riley
  5. 74 K. Bezahaf
  6. 8 H. Abdelli
  7. 14 Igor Paixão
  8. 7 A. Gomes
  9. 77 A. Harit
  10. 9 A. Gouiri

Bench: T. Nnadi, N. Maupay, B. Meité, G. Kondogbia, U. Garcia, F. Moumbagna, E. Mbondo, K. Abdallah, T. Vermot

Estac Troyes vs Marseille head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Estac Troyes 1 · draws 2 · Marseille 7.

Estac TroyesDrawsMarseille
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-04-16Marseille3-1Estac TroyesLigue 1
2023-01-11Estac Troyes0-2MarseilleLigue 1
2022-02-27Estac Troyes1-1MarseilleLigue 1
2021-11-28Marseille1-0Estac TroyesLigue 1
2018-04-15Estac Troyes2-3MarseilleLigue 1
2017-12-20Marseille3-1Estac TroyesLigue 1
2016-05-14Estac Troyes1-1MarseilleLigue 1
2015-08-23Marseille6-0Estac TroyesLigue 1
2013-03-03Marseille2-1Estac TroyesLigue 1
2012-10-21Estac Troyes1-0MarseilleLigue 1

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match