Why this pick: Monaco vs Toulouse
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Monaco 10, Toulouse 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Monaco vs Toulouse: model vs market
| Source | Monaco | Draw | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 23% | 30% |
| Market | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Published | 56% | 23% | 22% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Monaco vs Toulouse odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monaco, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 1.83 | 1.62 | -0.20 |
| Draw | 3.91 | 4.20 | +0.29 |
| Toulouse | 4.18 | 5.00 | +0.82 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monaco and Toulouse expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.50
- Attack rating (Monaco / Toulouse)
- 1.14 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Monaco / Toulouse)
- 1.03 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monaco vs Toulouse score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monaco goals. Columns: Toulouse goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monaco vs Toulouse goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monaco vs Toulouse
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Toulouse | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monaco or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Toulouse) | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win by 2+ | 27% | 3.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Monaco and Toulouse recent form
Monaco
5W 1D 0L
Toulouse
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monaco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Toulouse away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monaco at home only, Toulouse away only.
Injuries & availability
Monaco absences
-
P. Brunner
suspended
Toulouse absences
- J. Vignolo inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Monaco lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 L. Hrádecký
- 20 Flávio Nazinho
- 15 E. Dier
- 72 Sadibou Sané
- 2 Vanderson
- 6 D. Zakaria
- 8 L. Camara
- 7 M. Detourbet
- 10 A. Golovin
- 37 E. Diop
- 11 M. Abline
Bench: J. Teze, F. Balogun, C. Mawissa Elebi, P. Köhn, S. Idumbo-Muzambo, M. Salisu, Ansu Fati, A. Soubeir, S. Benzahra
Toulouse lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 16 G. Restes
- 12 C. Tapé
- 3 M. McKenzie
- 5 S. Koumbassa
- 22 R. Messali
- 6 A. Vossah
- 23 C. Cásseres
- 37 Y. Azizi
- 8 T. Jørgensen
- 20 C. Tengstedt
- 13 J. Russell-Rowe
Bench: S. Hidalgo, S. Oppong, N. Sigur, A. Dønnum, M. Amougou, D. Odogu, N. Schmidt, M. Niflore, I. Diallo
Monaco vs Toulouse head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Monaco 5 · draws 2 · Toulouse 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Toulouse | 2-2 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Monaco | 1-0 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-07 | Toulouse | 1-1 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-12-07 | Monaco | 2-0 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-02-18 | Monaco | 1-2 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-12-20 | Toulouse | 1-2 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-06-03 | Monaco | 1-2 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-11-06 | Toulouse | 0-2 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2019-12-04 | Toulouse | 1-2 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Lens vs Lyon 2026-10-09
- Lille v Le Havre — match page 2026-10-10
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans 2026-10-10
- Lorient vs Paris FC 2026-10-10
- Brest v Angers — match page 2026-10-10
- Nice vs Strasbourg — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Rennes vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Estac Troyes vs Marseille — team news & stats 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Monaco, previous: Monaco v Lens analysis
- Monaco, next: Lorient – Monaco, 2026-10-18
- Toulouse, previous: Toulouse vs Le Havre: odds and pick
- Toulouse, next: Le Mans – Toulouse, 2026-10-16