Why this pick: Rennes vs Auxerre
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Rennes 10, Auxerre 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Rennes vs Auxerre: model vs market
| Source | Rennes | Draw | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 22% | 26% |
| Market | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Published | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.43.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Rennes vs Auxerre odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rennes, 49 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 1.42 | 1.44 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 5.08 | 5.00 | -0.08 |
| Auxerre | 6.83 | 6.89 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rennes and Auxerre expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.70
- Attack rating (Rennes / Auxerre)
- 1.21 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Rennes / Auxerre)
- 1.26 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rennes vs Auxerre score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rennes goals. Columns: Auxerre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rennes vs Auxerre goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rennes vs Auxerre
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rennes | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.05 | |
| Auxerre | 17% | 5.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rennes or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Auxerre) | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rennes win by 2+ | 33% | 3.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rennes and Auxerre recent form
Rennes
3W 2D 1L
Auxerre
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rennes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Auxerre away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rennes at home only, Auxerre away only.
Injuries & availability
Auxerre absences
-
A. Diousse
knee injury
-
B. Okoh
knee injury
-
C. Makosso
yellow cards
-
M. Senaya
hamstring injury
- R. Mandengue muscle injury
-
S. Fofana
groin injury
-
T. Siwe
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Rennes lineup · 4-3-3
- 30 B. Samba
- 18 M. Nagida
- 24 A. Rouault
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 14 B. Reynolds
- 45 M. Camara
- 21 V. Rongier
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 90 I. Soumaré
- 9 E. Lepaul
- 11 Mousa Tamari
Bench: D. Cissé, L. Blas, Eliezer Mayenda, N. Lemaître, S. Szymański, B. Dia, A. Ait Boudlal, H. Do Marcolino, P. Frankowski
Auxerre lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 23 M. Diop
- 92 C. Akpa
- 4 A. Tuanzebe
- 46 A. Piedfort
- 22 F. Oppegård
- 5 K. Danois
- 8 N. Ahamada
- 27 L. Sy
- 10 D. Namaso
- 21 R. Faivre
- 9 C. Archer
Bench: P. Nardi, R. Labeau Lascary, P. Ekwah, S. Diomandé, L. Dioubate, E. Legros, Salimou Danfakha, Aristide Zossou
Rennes vs Auxerre head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Rennes 4 · draws 4 · Auxerre 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Auxerre | 0-3 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Rennes | 2-2 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-04-06 | Rennes | 0-1 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-11-03 | Auxerre | 4-0 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-03-11 | Auxerre | 0-0 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-09-11 | Rennes | 5-0 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2014-02-12 | Auxerre | 0-1 | Rennes | Coupe de France |
| 2012-03-11 | Rennes | 1-1 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2011-10-23 | Auxerre | 0-1 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2011-04-02 | Rennes | 0-0 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Lens vs Lyon 2026-10-09
- Lille v Le Havre — match page 2026-10-10
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans 2026-10-10
- Monaco v Toulouse — match page 2026-10-10
- Lorient vs Paris FC 2026-10-10
- Brest v Angers — match page 2026-10-10
- Nice vs Strasbourg — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Estac Troyes vs Marseille — team news & stats 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Rennes, previous: Lyon vs Rennes prediction
- Rennes, next: Paris FC vs Rennes prediction
- Auxerre, previous: Auxerre vs Brest prediction
- Auxerre, next: Le Havre vs Auxerre: odds and pick