Why this pick: Aston Villa vs Brighton
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Aston Villa 10, Brighton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
Aston VillaBrighton
1.60
xG per 90
1.43
1.60
npxG per 90
1.28
14.3
PPDA
9.7
8.8
Deep completions per 90
6.2
1.38
xPTS per 90
1.24
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Aston Villa and Brighton recent form
Aston Villa
3W 1D 2L
Brighton
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aston Villa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-1-3
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
Brighton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-6
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.58
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
League matches this season before kick-off: Aston Villa at home only, Brighton away only.
Aston Villa vs Brighton head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Aston Villa 3 · draws 1 · Brighton 1.
60%
20%
20%
Aston VillaDrawsBrighton
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | Brighton | 3-4 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2025-04-02 | Brighton | 0-3 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2024-12-30 | Aston Villa | 2-2 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2024-05-05 | Brighton | 1-0 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2023-09-30 | Aston Villa | 6-1 | Brighton | Premier League |
Before and after this match
- Aston Villa, previous: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: odds and pick
- Aston Villa, next: Aston Villa v Leeds analysis
- Brighton, previous: Brighton – Crystal Palace, 2026-02-08
- Brighton, next: Brentford vs Brighton: odds and pick