Why this pick: Aston Villa vs Chelsea
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Aston Villa 10, Chelsea 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
Aston VillaChelsea
1.46
xG per 90
2.50
1.46
npxG per 90
2.05
10.7
PPDA
10.0
10.6
Deep completions per 90
6.3
1.37
xPTS per 90
1.96
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Aston Villa and Chelsea recent form
Aston Villa
1W 2D 3L
Chelsea
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aston Villa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-3
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 0.79
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
Chelsea away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-4
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.21
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
League matches this season before kick-off: Aston Villa at home only, Chelsea away only.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Aston Villa 3 · draws 1 · Chelsea 1.
60%
20%
20%
Aston VillaDrawsChelsea
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | Chelsea | 1-2 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2025-02-22 | Aston Villa | 2-1 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2024-12-01 | Chelsea | 3-0 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2024-04-27 | Aston Villa | 2-2 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2023-09-24 | Chelsea | 0-1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
Before and after this match
- Aston Villa, previous: Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Aston Villa prediction
- Aston Villa, next: Manchester United v Aston Villa analysis
- Chelsea, previous: Arsenal – Chelsea, 2026-03-01
- Chelsea, next: Chelsea vs Newcastle United: odds and pick