Why this pick: Burnley vs Aston Villa
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Burnley 10, Aston Villa 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
BurnleyAston Villa
0.97
xG per 90
1.47
0.97
npxG per 90
1.47
15.6
PPDA
12.4
3.8
Deep completions per 90
7.6
0.59
xPTS per 90
1.40
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Burnley and Aston Villa recent form
Burnley
0W 1D 5L
Aston Villa
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Burnley at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-10
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
Aston Villa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-6
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.41
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
League matches this season before kick-off: Burnley at home only, Aston Villa away only.
Burnley vs Aston Villa head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Burnley 0 · draws 0 · Aston Villa 3.
0%
0%
100%
BurnleyDrawsAston Villa
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | Aston Villa | 2-1 | Burnley | Premier League |
| 2023-12-30 | Aston Villa | 3-2 | Burnley | Premier League |
| 2023-08-27 | Burnley | 1-3 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
Before and after this match
- Burnley, previous: Leeds vs Burnley prediction
- Burnley, next: Arsenal vs Burnley prediction
- Aston Villa, previous: Aston Villa vs Tottenham: odds and pick
- Aston Villa, next: Aston Villa – Liverpool, 2026-05-15