Why this pick: Coventry vs Hull City
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Coventry 1, Hull City 1). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Coventry vs Hull City: model vs market
| Source | Coventry | Draw | Hull City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Published | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.98.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Coventry vs Hull City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Coventry, 13 snapshots since 2026-08-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry | 1.78 | 1.90 | +0.11 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.50 | +0.10 |
| Hull City | 3.35 | 4.22 | +0.87 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Coventry and Hull City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Coventry / Hull City)
- 1.52 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Coventry / Hull City)
- 0.85 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Coventry vs Hull City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Coventry goals. Columns: Hull City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Coventry vs Hull City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Coventry vs Hull City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coventry | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Hull City | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Coventry or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Hull City) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | Coventry win by 2+ | 30% | 3.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Coventry and Hull City recent form
Coventry
4W 1D 1L
Hull City
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Coventry absences
-
H. Wright
muscle injury
Hull City absences
-
C. Hughes
groin injury
-
D. Gyabi
groin injury
-
E. Matazo
knee injury
-
J. Butland
arm injury
-
J. Gelhardt
ankle injury
-
M. Jacob
hip injury
-
O. Zambrano
hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Coventry vs Hull City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Coventry 2 · draws 5 · Hull City 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Hull City | 0-0 | Coventry | England Championship |
| 2025-08-09 | Coventry | 0-0 | Hull City | England Championship |
| 2025-04-14 | Hull City | 1-1 | Coventry | Championship |
| 2024-12-14 | Coventry | 2-1 | Hull City | Championship |
| 2024-04-24 | Coventry | 2-3 | Hull City | Championship |
| 2023-09-15 | Hull City | 1-1 | Coventry | Championship |
| 2023-03-11 | Coventry | 1-1 | Hull City | Championship |
| 2022-08-27 | Hull City | 3-2 | Coventry | Championship |
| 2022-03-16 | Coventry | 0-2 | Hull City | Championship |
| 2021-10-30 | Hull City | 0-1 | Coventry | Championship |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Crystal Palace v Manchester City — match page 2026-08-28
- Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-08-29
- Bournemouth vs Everton 2026-08-29
- Tottenham vs Newcastle United — team news & stats 2026-08-29
- Chelsea vs Brighton 2026-08-30
- Leeds v Brentford — match page 2026-08-30
- Sunderland vs Fulham — team news & stats 2026-08-30
- Manchester United vs Ipswich 2026-08-30
Before and after this match
- Coventry, previous: Arsenal – Coventry, 2026-08-21
- Coventry, next: Manchester City vs Coventry prediction
- Hull City, previous: Hull City v Manchester United analysis
- Hull City, next: Hull City vs Aston Villa prediction